Los analistas opinan. Apuntes tras la primera ronda de elecciones en Francia

Redacción - Domingo, 23 de Abril

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Vincent Durel Gestor del fondo Fidelity Funds France Fund Como habían predicho las encuestas, Emmanuel Macron y Marine Le Pen se enfrentarán en segunda vuelta. Esta configuración debería tranquilizar a los inversores, ya que el candidato centrista siempre ha salido claramente vencedor de este duelo en las encuestas.Emmanuel Macron es un reformista de centro y proeuropeo, lo que tranquilizará enormemente a los inversores internacionales. Su programa económico se centra sobre todo en mejorar la productividad de la economía mediante una rebaja duradera de las cargas sociales, reducir el déficit público, impulsar el crecimiento y fomentar el emprendimiento a través de una política fiscal favorable. Previsiblemente, estas medidas deberían incidir positivamente en las perspectivas de la economía francesa, así como en la confianza de los empresarios y los consumidores. Sin embargo, este escenario positivo depende de la victoria en la segunda vuelta, y de la obtención de una mayoría estable durante las elecciones legislativas.

 

En cuanto al resultado electoral, la victoria de Emmanuel Macron en segunda vuelta contra Marine Le Pen es altamente probablemente si atendemos a todos los sondeos realizados desde el arranque de la campaña de las elecciones presidenciales.

Por lo tanto, durante los próximos días cabe esperar un mejor comportamiento relativo del sector financiero en Francia y Europa en respuesta al descenso del riesgo político, lo que beneficiará al conjunto de las bolsas europeas.

 

 

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Philippe WAECHTER, Chief Economist, Natixis AM

 

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will be the two runners up of the French Presidential Election. This result is consistent with polls as it is shown below.

Presidential election-first round.

 

 

Some remarks

 

1 – The conservative party, Les Républicains, and le Parti Socialiste dropped dramatically in  this election. Their number of voters is just 26% this year while it was 63% in 1995, 36% in 2002, 57% in 2007 and 56% in 2012. There is, as in many European countries, a deep political recomposition which is done out of the traditional parties.

2 – The abstention rate is 21.5% while it was 20.52% in 2012.

3 – Following polls, Emmanuel Macron is expected to be the next French President (May the 7th)

4 – France will not exit from the European Institutions. The systemic risk is now much lower

5- The expectation of a Macron victory should reduce the risk premium on French financial assets. We’re going back to business as usual. The spread between the French 10 year bond and the 10 year Bund will narrow

6 – This stronger link with Europe will reduce risk for every European country. It’s positive for the European stability

7 – The next 15 days will be very important on the political ground as populist vote was at 40% in the first round (Le Pen + Mélenchon). There is a real choice for the future of France

8 – French people are legitimist so they will give the new President the possibility to govern at the general elections that will take place on June the 11th and the 18th.

Julius Baer _ geopolítica Eurozona: Francia

ECONOMICS

 

Equities: 1st round results clearly support our bullish view on the eurozone

 

As suggested by the polls ahead of the vote, the centrist Emmanuel Macron (23.9%) and right-wing populist Marine Le Pen (21.4%) qualified for the 2nd round with Mr. Macron now being clearly the favorite. In anticipation of this result, we have upgraded eurozone equities in March. Market relief now should support eurozone equities, primarily French and peripheral European stocks. With regard to sectors, cyclicals and politically sensitive stocks - primarily financials - should benefit in first place.

We reiterate our bullish view on European financials and selected cyclicals in peripheral Europe.

Patrik Lang, Head Equity Research, Julius Baer

 

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French presidential elections 2017: 2nd-round ticket for Macron and Le Pen

With a ticket for Macron and Le Pen to the second round of the French presidential elections on 7 May 2017, our expected base case became reality. Official results presented this morning show that centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron gained most votes with 23.9%, followed closely by right-wing populist Marine Le Pen at 21.4%. The other two promising candidates, Republican candidate Francois Fillonand far-left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon followed behind with 19.9% and 19.6% respectively. The results show that opinion polls ahead of the elections were rather accurate. The present outcome is the second-best scenario, out of the six possible constellations we had outlined in last Fri-day’s Daily Wire. French socialists, e.g. the foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and their defeated official candidate Benoit Hamon, as well as François Fillon and former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, of the defeated Républicains, all appealed to the French voters to now support Macron, in order to avoid a far-right Le Pen presidency. Given this immediate support, we believe that Macron will be able to get a major portion of the voters left and right of the center behind him. The potential threat that far-left but EU-critical voters, which had voted for Mélenchon, will go for Le Pen seems modest. Le Pen, who gained a record high of 7.6m votes indeed fared, as expected, much better than back in 2012, gaining more than one million votes extra. However, considering the electorate of 46.4 million voters casting a ballot yesterday (a high turnout of 80%), Le Pen would have to more than triple her votes to win the presidency on 7 May, which seems rather improbable. Given this backdrop, the odds for Marine Le Pen to win the second round are low.

We believe that early indications from markets, with the euro hitting a five-and-a-half-month high, rising Asian stock indices to be followed by friendly European stock markets and an expected recovery of French government bonds today, suggest that this optimistic scenario is being priced in now. In-line, relief and fading safe-haven demand caused gold prices to trade lower this morning - we remain Neutral with a three-month price target of USD 1,200 per ounce. Investors can be confident that an EU-and euro-friendly President Macron will emerge out of round two. However, chances for harsh economic reforms in France are modest, given the defeat of the traditional socialist and republican parties, which will nevertheless seek to retain their influence in the upcoming parliamentary elections in June.

The increased probability of an EU-and euro-friendly President Macron will support the euro, French bonds and European equity markets in the coming days. We believe that investors should not be too afraid of a negative surprise in the second round, as the odds are clearly not in favour of Le Pen.

Janwillem Acket, Chief Economist & David A. Meier; Macro Research, Julius Baer

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