A medida que aumenta el riesgo a nivel global, ¿en qué parte del mundo están las oportunidades?

La renta variable se depreció la semana pasada a raíz de las tensiones geopolíticas entre las que se incluyen la situación en Irak, las sanciones a Rusia y la posible independencia de Escocia. En Estados Unidos, los datos económicos siguen sugiriendo el fortalecimiento de la economía provocando una subida de los tipos de interés y la apreciación del dólar americano. La otra cara del fortalecimiento del dólar americano es la depreciación de las demás divisas. En Japón, este efecto está provocando un empuje significativo a la renta variable local, una tendencia que esperamos que continúe.

As Global Risks Rise, Where in
the World Are the Opportunities?
s e p t e m b e r 1 5 , 2 0 1 4
Stocks Falter on Geopolitical Risk and Higher Rates
U.S. stocks fell last week amid geopolitical concerns and rising interest rates. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.86% to close the week at 16,987, the S&P 500
Index dropped 1.05% to 1,985 and the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.33% to
4,567. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from 2.46% to 2.61%, as
its price correspondingly fell.
Despite tensions overseas, the data continue to point to a strengthening economy
in the U.S. This, in turn, is resulting in a stronger dollar and higher interest rates.
But the flip side of the stronger dollar is weakness in other currencies. In some
instances, notably Japan, this is providing a significant boost to local stocks, a
trend we expect to continue.
A Wee Bit of Drama Over Scotland
Investors wrestled last week with a slew of geopolitical concerns, including a
surprising one. The prospect of renewed American military involvement in Iraq
and additional EU sanctions against Russia were joined by a new worry:
the prospect of an independent Scotland.
The Scottish issue is particularly interesting. Although investors were aware of the
impending vote all year, few thought the referendum had much chance of passing.
Over the past two weeks, however, several polls have suggested a realistic chance
that Scotland will vote for independence this week, a development that seems to
have taken most by surprise.
What are the ramifications if the Scots vote “yes” for independence? Obviously, the
vote is most important for the U.K., but Scottish independence would have broader
significance as well, particularly for the rest of Europe. At the very least, sterling
and other U.K. assets would likely come under additional pressure. In addition,
given that Scotland is typically more pro-European Union than the rest of the U.K.,
a departure could raise the odds of an eventual U.K. exit from the EU, which would
only add to uncertainty in the region. It may also embolden other separatist
movements, such as Catalonia in Spain.
For now, our vote is on a narrow victory for a continued union, but should Scottish
independence prevail, investors should prepare for some uncertainty for the
broader European Union.
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm
in 2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
What are the ramifications
if the Scots vote “yes” for
independence? Obviously,
the vote is most important
for the U.K., but Scottish
independence would have
broader significance as
well, particularly for the
rest of Europe.
It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are
answers.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or
solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of September 15, 2014,
and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary
and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to
accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.
Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing
involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility
of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income
investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market
value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest
payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.