Acerca de lo que dijo ayer la FED

Las declaraciones realizadas ayer en el marco del Comité de Operaciones de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) abren la posibilidad de que la Fed empiece a normalizar su política de tipos antes de que finalice el año, ya que la institución monetaria reconoce las mejoras observadas en el mercado laboral a pesar de que la evolución de la inflación y los salarios sigue siendo moderada
Esperamos que el crecimiento de los salarios repunte a medida que aumenten las contrataciones. El índice de costes laborales, que se publicará este viernes, debería ofrecer pistas sobre el momento en el que la Fed subirá sus tipos
Independientemente de que la Fed normalice su política en septiembre o algo más tarde, el mensaje más importante que ha transmitido el banco central, que ha sido absolutamente claro, es que la senda de la normalización de los tipos será gradual y que el nivel en el que se establecerán será más bajo que en el pasado

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Extended Overview:
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee laid out a statement that while in line with prior announcements increasingly recognizes that recent labor market improvement, and inflation and its expectations, signal the economy is ready for an initial lift-off of policy rates before year end. We still believe that the FOMC’s September meeting is the most likely date for this lift-off (with December a real possibility too), but we would argue that the precise timing of the event is much less important than the pace of policy rate change, as well as the ultimate destination of the terminal rate. And in terms of pace and destination, the Fed has been unambiguously clear that the path of rate change will be gradual and the long-run terminal rate lower than the 4.25% that was previously considered the norm. Indeed, in her recent Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, FOMC Chair Yellen repeatedly used the term gradual to describe the trajectory of policy rates. In the FOMC’s statement, this tone was reinforced by a quite positive assessment of labor market gains, with the recognition that inflation is still running low and export activity has been soft.
In terms of the timing of lift-off, it is clear to us that the Committee’s current composition is historically dovish and it will hold a high bar to each change in rates, particularly the first. So despite the fact that our proprietary “Yellen Index” of labor market indicators (as they relate to the Fed’s reaction function) unquestionably implies the readiness of the economy to handle a rate increase, the dovish interpretation of selected data may keep the Fed on hold longer than we would anticipate, particularly with a benign inflation environment and subdued wage growth to date.
As a result, the next few weeks will be vital for providing near-term lift-off information. We expect payrolls growth to continue at a fairly strong pace, and wages should eventually follow employment levels higher, particularly if we continue to see solid recovery in the residential housing sector, as higher wage construction jobs can pick up. Further, our proprietary leading indicator of wage growth, and the last Employment Cost Index data print, both point to Average Hourly Earnings gains in the 2.5% to 3.0% range in the coming months. Also, real wage growth is already quite strong, given the very low rate of inflation. Investors should closely watch the forthcoming ECI print at the end of this week, as well as the near-term AHE data, Core PCE and inflation metrics, which will all be critical in determining whether liftoff begins in September or waits until December. There are two payroll numbers between now and the September FOMC meeting and these will represent important signals for the timing of Fed rate normalization.
Interestingly, when asked about the pace of policy rate change during Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, Chair Yellen suggested that waiting longer to begin normalization might imply the need to tighten faster and that she believes tightening sooner in a more gradual and deliberate manner is likely the more prudent course of action. Moreover, if the FOMC does not begin this process soon it would be very difficult to see how its SEP projections for the coming couple of years could ever be achieved. As to the risks of a slowly rising policy rate path for the economy, we think some market commentators have exaggerated them. In our view, the normalization of rates could actually be a benefit to economic growth. Further, keeping rates at excessively low levels, while perhaps beneficial for markets, also raises risks that might threaten to undermine the economic recovery. Thus, the time to start moving away from these “emergency rate” levels is clearly at hand.