ANÁLISIS TÉCNICO: Niveles de 13.12 % para la volatilidad VIX (CITI)

Redacción - Martes, 31 de Mayo

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Niveles de 13.12 % para la volatilidad VIX.

 

El EUR algo más apreciado que ayer a la misma hora, en niveles de 1.1131 USD.

Entre 1.106/1.1225 USD.

 

El S&P en niveles de 2102 puntos.

Entre 1848/2120 puntos.

Tuesday snapshot: Monthly closes to watch

Tom Fitzpatrick 1-212-723-1344 thomas.fitzpatrick@citi.com

Shyam Devani 65-6657-2964 shyam.devani@citi.com

Dan Tobon 44-20-7986-3453 daniel.tobon@citi.com

Gregory Marks 1-212-723-7057 gregory.marks@citi.com

For recent commentary or to access archived publications, visit the CitiFX Technicals website

–    Month end has arrived and we are in line for important closes tonight in key markets:

¡  EURUSD – Bearish monthly reversal on a close below 1.1216 

¡  USD Index - Bullish monthly reversal with a close above 95.20

¡  US 2 year yield - Outside month arguing for higher yields if we close above 88 bps

¡  Gold – Bearish monthly reversal at the highs if we close below $1,209

–    These developments if/when confirmed would only add weight to the views that a stronger USD supported by higher US short end yields will be seen, as well as a lower Gold price.

–    Short term update (charts not included) – Overnight we saw a close above 111.05 on USDJPY which is a bullish break. A rally towards the 200 day moving average above 116 is likely. Short term supports are at 110.58-67 and then at 109.90-97 (55 day and previous trendline). EURJPY has bounced from the 76.4% retrace against the lows on the daily chart. While it is unlikely to trend aggressively, a bounce seems to be the danger which would mean USDJPY is likely to be the outperformer in the near term.

 

·       The last time we saw a bearish monthly was at similar levels in October 2015. What followed was a move from a closing price of 1.1003 that month to 1.0523 low in early December.

·       Before that, a bearish monthly reversal was seen at the highs in May 2014 and a bearish monthly was posted two months later in July 2014.

 

·       A bullish outside month would be confirmed on the USD index should we close today above 95.20 today.

·       A reminder that last year we spend 24 weeks moving from the highs just above 100 down to 92.62. This time the move down took 22 weeks

·       Near term resistance levels are in the 98.50 area followed by levels just above 100 (top of the range)

 

·       An outside month arguing for higher yields would be confirmed on a close above 88 bps tonight, which should continue to support the USD as the Fed progresses to a more hawkish position

·       The double bottom, which cannot be seen on this monthly chart, targets the trend high at 1.10%.

 

·       Monthly chart (left): A bearish monthly reversal at the highs of the trend would be confirmed on a close below $1,209 today

·       Daily chart (right): We have already sustained below the 55 day moving average and overnight closed below the horizontal support level at $1,207 which leaves the 200 day moving average to be tested at $1,164.

 

 

José Luis Martínez Campuzano

Estratega de Citi en España

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