BLACKROCK/ Actualización “Tendencias en la inversión multiactivo”

Mayor incertidumbre
Primero fue la crisis financiera mundial. Luego la crisis de la deuda europea. Ahora son los problemas en China los que han conmocionado a los mercados y han ensombrecido las perspectivas del crecimiento mundial. El impacto de la desaceleración de la economía china en el resto del mundo no está claro. Hay una posibilidad razonable de que el pesimismo actual en torno a China sea exagerado, como también lo fue la exuberancia registrada hace algunos meses. Sin embargo, la confusión en torno a la renta variable y a las intenciones de las autoridades chinas está  generando ansiedad. La labor de hacer de China una economía basada en el sector servicios es draconiana y hay muchos aspectos  que podrían ir mal. Lo que sí sabemos es que habrá consecuencias para aquellas economías que realizan notables exportaciones a China y para los precios de las materias primas, que ya se encuentran bajo presión.
 

TRENDS IN MULTI-ASSET INVESTING OCTOBER 2015 ADAM RYAN Head of Diversifi ed Strategies SARA MORGAN Managing Director, Diversifi ed Strategies PIERRE SARRAU Deputy Chief Investment Offi cer, Multi-Asset Strategies THREE-MONTH RATE EXPECTATIONS IMPLIED BY FUTURES Expectations for rates at end 2015 Expectations for rates at end 2016 INTEREST RATES (%) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 –0.5 Sep 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015 Sep 2014 Sep 2015 United Kingdom United States Japan Eurozone INTEREST RATES (%) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 –0.5 Sep 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015 Sep 2014 Sep 2015 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream and BlackRock Investment Institute, 1 October 2015. Note: Lines calculated by 100 minus the futures December 2015 and December 2016 futures prices on 3m Euribor, 3m sterling, 3m eurodollar and 3m euroyen contracts. Interest rate expectations for 2015-16 2 Volatility rising It was only a matter of time before the rising volatility in credit, rates and foreign exchange markets this year spilled over into equities. In August, the third longest bull run for stocks in history came to an abrupt end as equity volatility, as measured by the VIX ‘fear index’ spiked to levels not seen since November 2011. ‘Volatility of volatility’ – which can be simply interpreted as where investors expect volatility to be in the future – reached all-time highs, according to Bloomberg data. VOLATILITY OF VOLATILITY VVIX Index INDEX LEVEL (%) 140 120 100 60 40 20 80 0 Jan 2010 Jun 2011 Apr 2014 Nov 2012 Sep 2015 Source: Bloomberg, September 2015. The VVIX is a volatility of volatility measure in that it represents the expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of the CBOE Volatility Index (the VIX). With the prospect of a US rate rise pushed out, global monetary policy will continue to be the key driver of markets. That means more consensus build up, more ‘data dependency’ and therefore more volatility. Investor confidence is fragile and easily shaken, but it’s difficult to point to a specific reason as to why global growth is disappointing. Perhaps this is why markets are so obsessed by near-term economic indicators: it’s all they have to hold on to. Such obsessive behaviour creates something of a self-fulfilling spiral. Asset prices are falling because of a deteriorating outlook. And how do we know that the outlook is deteriorating? Because asset prices are falling. . . . Bad news is now bad news, but there is good news Amidst the volatility and global growth fears there are still reasons to be positive. For instance, though China faces a monumental challenge, we should remember that it is transitioning to a service-led economy; policy maker – and therefore market – focus on weakening industrial and manufacturing data may be misplaced. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also appear to have more policy tools left in their toolkit than possibly any other major central bank. Up until the latest non-farm payroll report, macro-economic and labour market data in the US pointed towards a broad-based and sustained economic recovery. We were somewhat surprised, therefore, by the Fed’s focus on the international picture and near-term volatility at the September FOMC meeting – not least because of the insulated nature of the US economy: around 80% of US GDP is generated domestically. However, suggestions that the US needs another dose of QE, though at the extreme end of the range of views on the US economy, demonstrate just how difficult all major central banks are finding it to tighten policy. Andy Haldane, Chief Economist at the Bank of England (BoE), said in September that ‘here could be a need to loosen rather than tighten the monetary reins as a next step to support UK growth and return inflation to target.’ In Europe, a domestic recovery, albeit fragile, is under way. However, Europe is more exposed to the global economy – particularly emerging markets – than the US, so European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi’s emphasis on the open-ended, fl exible nature of its already sizeable QE programme in response to global events is perhaps more understandable. Currency dynamics – particularly worries about a strengthening euro in the wake of the Fed’s decision – may see Draghi ramping up the rhetoric around more QE over the next few ECB meetings, particularly given the –0.1% infl ation reading in September. At a global level, monetary policy remains easy and central bankers the major players in markets. What could investors do? As volatility rises, so too does the need for truly diversifi ed portfolios. Investors also need agility, because heightened volatility typically leads to more dispersion between asset classes, regions, countries and sectors. Dispersion is not something to fear – it throws up idiosyncratic opportunities for those fl exible enough with their asset allocation and shrewd enough to look beyond traditional investments. Uncertainty hits home the need to:  Invest more broadly across asset classes and geographies.  Go deeper into capital structures.  Have sophisticated risk controls to monitor – and mitigate – complex portfolio threats. 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