BLACKROCK / Rick Rieder sobre las últimas declaraciones por la Reserva Federal

Rick Rieder, director de inversiones de renta fija fundamental en BlackRock - Jueves, 30 de Abril

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Los cambios realizados en abril en el discurso de la Fed fueron modestos y se centraron principalmente en una interpretación más laxa de las condiciones económicas, por lo que la probabilidad de que se produzca una primera subida de tipos se acerca más a septiembre. No obstante, pensamos que la Fed tiene ante sí una oportunidad para dar un paso adelante, en un contexto de estabilidad en los mercados, un crecimiento de las nóminas a largo plazo en niveles elevados y de políticas acomodaticias aplicada por los bancos centrales extranjeros. Especialmente con la mejora de la trayectoria de los salarios y la probabilidad de que la inflación registre un modesto repunte, sería desalentador —y posiblemente desestabilizador— que el Comité de Operaciones de Mercado Abierto de la Reserva Federal (FOMC) desaprovechara esta oportunidad para para iniciar la subida de tipos

Extended Overview: 

As expected, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee laid out a dovish interpretation of recent economic conditions in its policy statement, and pointed to the very clear slowing in economic data witnessed during the first quarter of the year. And while the statement recognized that transitory factors exacerbated this growth slowdown: such as, in our view, the harsh winter weather and labor unrest at West Coast ports, it is clear to us that the Fed wants to be definitively convinced that the data slowdown is indeed transitory in nature. Of course, the stronger dollar, and a very weak advanced print for first quarter GDP growth weighed on the statement’s tone too. Still, the Fed continued to recognize the improvement in the labor market, despite the recently disappointing March payroll data, and it expects labor markets to continue to strengthen.

 

We think that the economy’s true character is best represented by a considerably tighter labor market today, which is a view supported by evidence in: the placement surveys, the recent pick-up in average hourly earnings, the jobs-hard-to-fill/jobs-easy-to-find surveys, and in the high profile actions of some major employers in significantly lifting wages. Further, data such as the recent core CPI print suggest a clear firming in inflationary conditions, as have market-implied indicators. This Fed, however, will continue to be patient, as evidenced by yesterday’s statement. While a June policy rate lift-off has not been completely taken off the table, we think that the bar for that timing is quite high. Thus, absent a very significant bounce-back in the employment reports, we think that the Fed (partly through the tone of yesterday’s statement) has “moved the goalposts” of employment and wage requirements to a more likely September lift-off date. Also, in our view the FOMC will take a gradual pace of movement from there, to an ultimately lower Fed Funds Rate destination.

 

Vitally, we think the Fed currently has a window of opportunity to move, with stable markets, longer-term payrolls growth at very high levels (despite the inevitable slowing first seen in March), and foreign central banks (most notably the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) taking the reins of policy accommodation. As a case in point, the U.S. labor market continues to power ahead, creating an average of 261,000 jobs over the past year, and the last time that 12-month job growth was as strong as it is today, the early 2000s, the Fed’s policy rate stood near 6% (versus effectively zero today). We strongly suggest that Fed rate normalization will not only be borne well by the economy, but that it may actually hold a positive impact, while keeping rates excessively accommodative almost certainly holds an increased risk for markets.

 

Additionally, wages are clearly beginning a cycle of improvement, which has been one of the main concerns holding the Fed back from moving toward rate normalization. Indeed, average hourly earnings (AHE) came in at a 0.3% gain in March, which was a bit above the 0.2% consensus expectation, and saw a 2.1% gain year-over-year. In fact, if we were to annualize the last three months of AHE gains, we would be running at a 3.9% rate, which strongly suggests to us that something is changing in labor markets. We continue to believe that the historical relationship between wage growth and declining unemployment (printing at 5.54% in March) will persist, leading to a modest acceleration in wage growth later this year, but the strong payroll gains in recent months may be tightening labor markets more than many expected.

 

Recent market action has anticipated data improvement, by backing rates up significantly, the 10-Year Treasury recently sat at 2.04%, and is either anticipating the Fed’s move, or it is adjusting to existing and anticipated market conditions by moving regardless of expected Fed reactions. In the end, however, we think the influence of monetary policy on economic growth and inflation is massively overstated today, and in many respects this degree of “emergency” accommodation has overstayed its welcome. The economy is likely to bounce back in the second and third quarters, and it would be both disheartening and potentially destabilizing if the FOMC were to squander this window of opportunity to make an initial rate move.

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