BofAML _ es duro hablar del comercio

Redacción - Martes, 14 de Febrero

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Global Economic Weekly: It’s tough to talk about trade •  Economists and "real people" have very different approaches to thinking about the costs and benefits of free trade. •  For the average person it is a trade-off between getting cheap stuff and losing jobs to lower wage workers. •  For economists it is about comparative advantage and the balance between trade deficits and capital flows.

Global Letter: it's tough to talk about trade

Economists and "real people" have very different approaches to thinking about the costs and benefits of free trade. For the average person it is a trade-off between getting cheap stuff and losing jobs to lower wage workers. For economists it is about comparative advantage and the balance between trade deficits and capital flows.

United States: the waiting is the hardest part

Although the markets are showing more concern, some analysts seem to be in a relatively sanguine mood going into the spring. By contrast, we see major risks looming, particularly around tax and trade policy. There is a significant risk of an uncertainty shock, and we recommend caution until the policy fog dissipates.

Euro Area: with just very little help from my friends

Inflation is a global phenomenon, and inflation moving higher elsewhere will help Euro area inflation. While the global backdrop will be helping, it will not move the needle enough to sustain inflation beyond the mid-year hump. A gradual improvement in the global output gap will generate a cumulative increase of 5bps in Euro area core inflation.

Asia: policy response needed to address areas of weakness

Singapore FY17 budget (20 Feb) will be delivered against a backdrop of weakness in services, labour market and productivity. There will be help for both households and businesses, with focus on the former. Look out for follow-ups to CFE proposals. Overall, we expect a larger primary deficit of 1.4% of GDP in FY17 to provide a moderate positive impulse to the economy.

Emerging EMEA: Poland: promising signs

We feel reassured about the consumption outlook, implying an easier environment for prices to catch up with rising costs.

Latin America: Argentina: growth is back

Policy reforms are paying off, and Argentina is leaving the recession behind. Activity indicators are surprising on the upside, on the back of construction, agriculture and industrial production.

UK: pay growth isn't budging

We see little evidence that UK pay growth will follow inflation up. In fact, a reliable Bank of England survey this week pointed to slowing wage growth this year. That matters because inflation will, we think, reach 3.0% this year, squeezing consumers heavily.

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