BofAML _ Global Economic Weekly: Tall tales of tapering

Redacción - Viernes, 21 de Octubre

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Global Economic Weekly: Tall tales of tapering
•   The tapering debate mixes and matches good and bad reasons to reduce bond buying.
•   If central bankers taper it will be because they don't have to buy as much to achieve their goals.
•   The real threat to the global bond market is growth, inflation and fiscal easing.

Global: tall tales of tapering

The tapering debate mixes and matches good and bad reasons to reduce bond buying. If central bankers taper it will be because they don't have to buy as much to achieve their goals. The real threat to the global bond market is growth, inflation and fiscal easing.

United States: saving for a rainy day

We argue that the historically softer trajectory for consumer spending owes to post-crisis household deleveraging, tame animal spirits, income inequality as well as an aging population. While growth in income and wealth underpins consumer spending, it is offset by structurally higher savings rates. This is yet another reason for the drop in equilibrium interest rates.

Euro Area: ECB Review - Dovish enough

In our view, Draghi was dovish enough to calm concerns over tapering. He balanced this with the notion that QE is not eternal. We think Draghi was consistent with our call of six-month QE extension at the current pace of EUR80 per month in December.

Asia: Korea: external wealth on the rise

We expect years of current account surplus of a structural nature ahead, providing a unique opportunity to build an NFA position as a net creditor nation. We forecast the NFA position to rise to 35% of GDP by 2021. A more solid NFA would help address the aging population and help KRW to move a step closer toward DM currency status.

Emerging EMEA: Russia: evaluating supply risks

Fiscal policy remains in consolidation mode as 2016 slippage seems to have one-off nature and reasons. Conservative oil outlook can push deficits even lower. Hawkish CBR might constrain the demand for growing supply even despite the likely further improvements in RUB liquidity.

Latin America: Colombia - the shape of things to come

Colombia will experience growth below market expectations as household consumption adjusts to a weaker labor market. For inflation to decline to 4% by end-2017, the central bank will have to cut its benchmark rate by at most 125bp, or perhaps less.

UK: winter is coming and consumers don't have a coat

We raise our CPI inflation forecast (to 2.5% in 2017 from 2.4%). We saw in 2010-2011 what elevated inflation does to growth: it squeezes consumption while exports don't benefit much. The experience could be worse this time round as consumers are stretched.

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