BofAML: perspectivas económicas para Agosto

Redacción - Sabado, 06 de Agosto

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 World at a Glance: August: global macro
•   Our core FX and rates views generally remain the same, as market focus has calmed considerably from initial Brexit concerns.
•   We continue to expect general USD upside, with our targets of 1.05 for EUR-USD and 7.00 for USD-CNY at the end of the year.
•   While our baseline US 10yr rate forecast remains 1.50% for end-16, we have a variety of changes in our commodities outlooks.

Key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities

Markets have moved past the Brexit vote for now and are looking ahead to global macro developments as well as the upcoming US elections. We continue to forecast the USD to move broadly higher against G10 over the remainder of 2016.

G10 FX: no changes since the Brexit aftermath

Since our last set of forecast changes in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, we do not make any further adjustments this month to our outlook. Our year-end targets remain 1.05 for EUR-USD and 105 for USD-JPY.

EM FX: LatAm adjustments, none for major Asia

Our baseline USD-CNY forecast stays at 7.00 for the end of the year. However, we have lowered our key USD-LatAm currency profiles, with a year-end target of 3.40 for BRL and 18.00 for MXN.

Interest rates: no major shifts for most targets

Our general rate views continue to be anchored by an expectation of low yields. The bulk of our targets remain the same, including 1.50% for the benchmark US10yr at end-2016, although we do lower our UK 10yr yield profile.

Commodities: broad variety of changes

Since last month, we have a variety of adjustments, highlighted by lower oil targets this year, although oil should still be in the $50/bbl range towards the end of 2016. We also have higher targets for gold, but more mixed changes for industrial metals.

 

The World at a Glance is our flagship monthly publication, highlighting our key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities. This edition has one page devoted to each of the G10 currencies, six major developed-market interest rates, and five key commodities. Our usual Emerging Market coverage will return in our next edition. 

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