BofAML _ previsiones para Europa

Redacción - Lunes, 26 de Septiembre

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Europe Economic Weekly: Doves are back • Germany wants positive rates, a fiscal surplus but no intra-Euro area transfers. This is an impossible trinity, in our view.
•   A 10y bond yield target in the Euro area would be tricky to implement from a technical and political perspective, we think.
•   UK: Sterling's depreciation is beginning to show up in prices early in the supply chain.

Weekly View: The doves speak, finally

After a disappointing press conference and a week of hawkish comments, the ECB doves finally spoke dovish tones this week. In the UK, expectations of a major fiscal stimulus or a delay of Article 50 triggering beyond 1H17 could be disappointed.

Euro area:Germany's impossible trinity

Ideally, we think Germany's preferences would go for positive interest rates, a fiscal surplus and no in-built transfers to the Euro area's periphery. We argue that these three objectives cannot be met at the same time, neither inside nor outside the monetary union.

UK:Sterling work

Sterling's depreciation is beginning to show up in prices early in the supply chain. Higher consumer price inflation is on the way. But exchange rate passthrough is taking a little longer than we expected, so we cut our 2017 CPI inflation forecast to 2.2% from 2.6%.

Hot Topic:ECB - Be careful with the read-across from BoJ

A 10y bond yield target in the Euro area would be tricky to implement from a technical and political perspective, we think. A commitment to inflation target overshooting is a much lower hanging fruit, but this is still not in close reach.

Peripheral Watch: Italy - positive on risk awareness

Our recent visit to Italy confirms that the referendum is not such a binary event for markets anymore.In our view, economic and political risks are set to remain in the short-run, but there is a broad-based awareness of them.

Next Week:

We expect M3 money supply growth to accelerate to 4.9% yoy in August. The preliminary print for September headline and core inflation should came in at 0.4% yoy and 0.8% yoy, respectively.

Table1: Calendar highlights
Date	GMT		Country		Data/Event	For	BofAML	Cons.†	Previous
28 Sep - 3 Oct		-		UK	Nationwide House Px (nsa, yoy)	Sep	5.7%	--	5.6%
26-Sep		09:30		UK	BBA Loans for House Purchase	Aug	38700.0	--	37662.0
27-Sep		09:00		Euro area	M3 Money Supply (yoy)	Aug	4.9%	--	4.8%
29-Sep		09:30		UK	Net Consumer Credit	Aug	1.2bn	--	1.2bn
29-Sep		09:30		UK	Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings	Aug	2.8bn	--	2.7bn
29-Sep		09:30		UK	Mortgage Approvals	Aug	62.6k	--	60.9k
29-Sep		10:00		Euro area	Economic Confidence	Sep

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