BofAML: Turbulencias en septiembre (World at a Glance)

Redacción - Miercoles, 02 de Septiembre

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CNY depreciation and China's equity declines have roiled markets, but we do not look for recovery to be derailed in the US. We keep our forecasts of year-end parity for EUR-USD and a September Fed hike, although risks have risen around those views.   Many EM FX targets are lower against USD, and while our G3 rates views are unchanged, oil and gold forecasts are also lower.

Key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities

Global market turbulence erupted on concerns around China. While considerable risks to the outlook are growing, our baseline view still focuses on EUR-USD falling to parity and the US 10yr rate going to 2.35% at end-2015, along with that first Fed hike in September.

G10 FX: no changes to G4, smaller changes elsewhere

We do not change our core EUR-USD target of 1.00 for the end of the year and 2016, although market turmoil has increased the near-term risks around that view. Elsewhere we have lowered our AUD, NZD and CHF forecasts.

EM FX: CNY aftermath

In the aftermath of the August CNY surprise, our core EM forecasts all reflect weaker currencies. Our 2016 year-end target for USD-CNY is now 6.90. We also pushed up our USD-INR, USD-MXN, and USD-BRL forecasts from last month.

Interest rates: small incremental shifts outside G3

We do not make any changes in our G3 rates forecasts, anchored by our continued expectation for a Fed rate hike in September. We do make smaller nudges downward in our yield targets for the UK, CA, and AU.

Commodities: further downside for oil & precious metals

Since last month, we have lowered our projections for both WTI and Brent crude oil, given the recent market action. We have also lowered our forecasts for both gold and silver prices as well.

The World at a Glance is our flagship monthly publication, highlighting our key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities. This edition has one page devoted to each of the G10 currencies, six major developed-market interest rates, twenty major EM currencies and five key commodities.

 

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