Global Economic Weekly Take the short way home

BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research  - Viernes, 22 de Agosto

• 
• 
• 
• 
• • 
  • 
  • 

Global: take the short way home Neutral interest rates seem to have ebbed in developed economies, but policymakers need to understand why. United States: Can the economy handle higher rates? Stories of "secular stagnation" and "debt overhang" are exaggerated. The economy is becoming more resilient and should be able to handle a slow Fed hiking cycle. 

Euro area: heightened inflation worries 

Alternative indicators of inflation have stabilized at dangerous levels, the evolution of market-based inflation expectations worries us, and the Russian ban on food imports is a new downside risk in the short run. The ECB cannot ignore all this for long. 

Japan's post-deflation economy 

Japan's corporate (nonfinancial) sector had to make various adjustments to survive the 15-year period of deflation that started in 1998. The result is that Japan's economy shows post-deflation characteristics.  

Emerging Asia: different beat 

Asian economies have been marching to different beat, with growth paths diverging. Central banks' policy directions have diverged in recent months, with further tightening likely in Malaysia & easing in Korea. FDI into China continues to languish and underperform FDI into ASEAN. 

Emerging EMEA: RUB flexibility can help stabilize rates 

New steps towards greater RUB flexibility by the CBR should help to reduce the need for more rate hikes even if political risks increase. 

UK: hawkish talk 

A simple Taylor Rule would suggest somewhat tighter monetary policy from the BoE, both in recent quarters and going forward. 

Australia: growth to be mired below trend 

We reaffirm our expectation that GDP growth will remain sub-trend of 2014 and 2015 while the mining investment cycle declines and the terms of trade deteriorate further. This underscores our forecast for the unemployment rate to rise and stay elevated, and the RBA to keep rates on hold for an extended period. 

Click here for full report* 

Please see full report for further details...

[Volver]