“Inaugurando 2017 – Optimismo extraordinario – incertidumbre extrema”

Witold Bahrke, Nordea AM - Viernes, 20 de Enero

• 
• 
• 
• 
• • 
  • 
  • 

El optimismo actual propiciado por las esperanzas de que el nuevo Gobierno estadounidense ponga en marcha una política presupuestaria de estímulo nunca vista —excepto en épocas de recesión— no concuerda con el actual contexto de incertidumbre creciente. Este contrasentido pone de relieve la vulnerabilidad de los mercados a medida que nos adentramos en el nuevo año Si bien han aumentado las perspectivas de inflación, los mercados siguen descontando únicamente dos subidas de tipos por parte de la Fed en 2017. Sin embargo, si se diese un cambio de tendencia hacia un aumento sostenido de la inflación y un mayor crecimiento real, la Fed se vería obligada, casi con toda seguridad, a subir los tipos más de dos veces en los próximos doce meses. La volatilidad de los mercados de renta variable se ha mantenido en niveles sorprendentemente reducidos a pesar de que los posibles escenarios tanto en términos económicos como de los mercados han aumentado en los últimos meses. En otras palabras, la probabilidad de que sucedan acontecimientos inesperados está aumentando Incluso los miembros de la Fed reconocieron la existencia de «una incertidumbre considerable» en su última reunión de política monetaria, en la que seis miembros del Comité de Operaciones de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) manifestaron sus dudas sobre el crecimiento, mientras que sólo uno lo hizo en septiembre. Esto no inspira demasiada confianza y tampoco es positivo para la credibilidad de los bancos centrales

«2017 ha comenzado con varios indicios contradictorios que deben aclararse para que se cumplan las perspectivas de los mercados. El optimismo ha aumentado rápidamente y en poco tiempo tras las elecciones de EE. UU. y, al mismo tiempo, la incertidumbre se ha mantenido en cotas elevadas. Como de costumbre, los mercados se están adelantando a los hechos y descuentan un mayor crecimiento en 2017. Sin embargo, este optimismo no puede traducirse en un mayor crecimiento en un contexto de incertidumbre generalizada. Uno de estos dos factores debe disminuir; cuanto más tiempo se mantenga la incertidumbre en niveles elevados, mayor será la probabilidad de decepción en los mercados financieros».
«Tanto en la política económica de Trump como, más en general, en las perspectivas de crecimiento a escala mundial, el optimismo requiere un cierto nivel de certeza para materializarse en inversiones concretas, en contrataciones y, en última instancia, en crecimiento. Por otro lado, una situación prolongada de incertidumbre resulta negativa para el crecimiento. En realidad no puede haber, al mismo tiempo, una gran incertidumbre acompañada de un gran optimismo. Una de las dos variables tiene que ceder».
 

***

Inaugurating 2017: Extraordinary optimism – extreme uncertainty

“2017 begins with a number of conflicting signals that need to clear the right way for market expectations to be met. In the aftermath of the US election, optimism has risen rapidly within a very short time frame. Simultaneously, uncertainty has stayed high. As usual, markets are front running reality, pricing higher growth for 2017. But this optimism cannot translate into higher growth in the midst of pervasive uncertainty. Something has to give, and the longer uncertainty stays high, the greater the likelihood of disappointments for financial markets.”

“Whether it’s about Trumponomics or global growth prospects in general, optimism requires a degree of certainty in order to translate into concrete investments, hiring and, ultimately, growth. Persistent uncertainty, on the other hand, is negative for growth. In reality, uncertainty and optimism cannot both stay high. Something has to give.”

Leaving 2016 behind, it’s time to take stock of the economy and markets heading into 2017. Although the most popular so called “Trump-trades” (in essence long developed market equities and short government bonds) are losing steam just days before Trump’s inauguration, there is still breath-taking optimism on both Main street and Wall street. This is mainly fuelled by hopes of unprecedented fiscal stimulus outside recessionary episodes from the incoming US administration. Equities are discounting a significant growth pick up without meaningful monetary tightening spoiling the show. Confidence among small- and medium-sized companies in the US is at the highest level since 2004 and US companies’ earnings estimates for the next year have not been revised down at the end of last year like they normally are.

All clear for 2017 then? Not so fast. Scepticism is warranted, especially as some markets seem to be priced to perfection when it comes to the overall economic outcome for 2017. More specifically, three inconsistencies underline the vulnerability of the markets heading into the new year. These conflicting signals need to be addressed the right way before we can deliver an optimistic outlook for 2017 as a whole.

First and foremost, the current optimism seems at odds with still high or even increasing uncertainty. Whether we look at investors, analysts, companies or consumers, optimism is all around. Take the bond market: the spread between European and US interest rates has risen to the highest levels since the 80s. To justify this, we probably need US growth to head back above pre-Lehman trend levels in the near future—which would require the absolute success of Trumponomics. At the same time, policy uncertainty is extremely elevated, not least caused by conflicting signals from the incoming US government. And although companies are becoming more optimistic, they also remain very tenuous about the future.

But whether it’s about Trumponomics or global growth prospects in general, optimism requires a degree of certainty in order to translate into concrete investments, hiring and, ultimately, growth. Persistent uncertainty, on the other hand, is negative for growth. In reality, uncertainty and optimism cannot both stay high. Something has to give.

Secondly, although inflation expectations have risen and investors increasingly buy into reflation trades (short bonds, long cyclical equities and growth sensitive commodities), markets are still only pricing two Fed hikes for 2017. If a regime shift in the direction of sustained higher inflation and higher real growth were to happen, the Fed would almost certainly be forced to hike more than two times over the next 12 months. Either the Fed is mispriced or too much of growth upside is priced into risk assets. It is difficult to see this scenario resolved in a way that is positive for markets (at least short term) because this would require either growth and inflation to disappoint or the Fed to tighten more than expected. One might be tempted to conclude that it’s just a matter of markets discounting more Fed hikes but we must remember the crowding out effects: Tightening more than expected would not go down well in equity markets and growth terms, as it would strengthen the US dollar further and raise long-term rates, amounting to increased tightening of monetary conditions.

[Volver]