Informe semanal economía global (BofAML)

Redacción - Viernes, 23 de Junio

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Global Economic Weekly: Core concern - the dip in global inflation • While global growth has picked up, there is still plenty of spare capacity. •  In many developed market economies inflation expectations have become unanchored... to the downside. •   Idiosyncratic stories also point to more downside than upside risks to core inflation.

Global Letter: core concern - the dip in global inflation

While global growth has picked up, there is still plenty of spare capacity. In many developed market economies inflation expectations have become unanchored … to the downside. Idiosyncratic stories also point to more downside than upside risks to core inflation.

United States: Surviving without stimulus

Hopes for a big fiscal stimulus have faded, prompting us to revise our 2018 GDP growth forecast to 2.1% in 2018, down from 2.5%. While growth will be slower, it is important to remember that the economy does not "need" stimulus to expand.

Euro Area: ECB - the opposite of 2011

We focus on the ECB's previous attempt of policy normalization, with the rate hikes of 2011. In our view, the likelihood of a policy mistake by the ECB is lower today than it was in 2011, but its cost would be higher.

Asia: India: good rains = RBI rate cut = rural demand

The south-west monsoon is progressing well, albeit a week late. This should contain agflation and push the RBI MPC into a 25bp rate cut on August 2. Good rains also should boost rural demand.

Emerging EMEA: Russia: when it rains, it pours

The Russian consumer has finally entered the recovery phase in 2Q17. On top of investment growth, this should support further GDP acceleration into 2017. Reflation concerns should remain subdued until at least 2018E.

Latin America: Mexico: expenditure weakens

Domestic expenditure is already decelerating, mostly due to a drop in government expenditure after fiscal consolidation. We expect aggregate domestic expenditure to continue decelerating. Aggregate demand growth is mostly due to exports.

UK: Happy Brexi-versary

How time flies. The year since the Brexit referendum provides a mountain of evidence to learn from. Uncertainty seemed to have no discernible economic effect but the sterling driven real income squeeze now is. We stick with below consensus growth forecasts.

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