Julius Baer: sobre China, petróleo y sector automovilístico

Redacción - Martes, 13 de Octubre

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ECONOMICS: China remains weak, but slow export recovery bodes well for world trade

 

Today’s Chinese trade data for September showed ongoing weakness in the second-largest economy. Exports improved more than expected, contracting 3.7% y/y compared to -5.5% in August and expectations for a 6.4% contraction, and also saw slow recoveries to all major markets. Imports, on the other hand, showed another marked deceleration by 20% y/y. This is likely due both to lower commodity prices, as volumes hold up quite well, and weak domestic demand. We expect the second batch of the September macroeconomic data to confirm domestic weakness next week.

More needs to be done by the Chinese government to support the weakening econ-omy. We expect more fiscal and monetary easing measures to come. This could lead to a temporary stabilisation by the beginning of next year, but will likely be followed by more slowing as the property market needs more time to work off imbalances.

Susan Joho, Senior Economist, Julius Baer

COMMODITIES: Oil slides as OPEC production grows

The oil market still listens to the OPEC, but apparently not very carefully. After reporting the highest oil production in three and a half years for September – which was marginally above the levels reached during summer – renewed oversupply concerns pushed oil down more than 5% yesterday. At the same time, OPEC said that global oil supply was down last month while demand was up, overheard by the market. Hence, we see this sell-off primarily driven by profit-taking after prices rallied strongly over the past few weeks. Our overall assessment of the oil market remains unchanged. US shale oil production has rolled over and is expected to drop below 9 million barrels per day by the end of this year on the back of low prices and reduced shale drilling activity.

 

The pronounced output slowdown alleviates over-supply concerns but increasingly bears the risks of future undersupply, especially given today’s strength of global oil demand. We maintain our neutral view and see oil prices trading in the USD 50 to 60 per barrel range going forward, not least as the oil market needs to set the incentive to avoid a further contraction in shale oil supply. In related news, China reported very solid commodity imports for September which should help ease demand fears that have been spreading in the commodity markets since this summer. China’s economic slowdown and concerns about softening global demand are the key wild cards, nevertheless.

Higher OPEC production put oil under pressure yesterday, primarily reflecting profit-taking following the recent rally. We keep our neutral view and see prices trading in the USD 50 to 60 per barrel range on the back of a slowly easing global supply glut.

Carsten Menke, Commodities Research Analyst, Julius Baer

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THEMATIC RESEARCH: Future car – benefiting chipmakers

The ‘diesel scandal’ may have a small but mixed impact on chipmakers that supply to affected automakers in the short term, but potentially a more positive in the long term, if the shift to more environmentally friendly cars accelerates. Then the automotive segment is a key growth driver of the chip market as auto chip sales have risen on average 14% yearly in the past 5 years. Today, the average vehicle contained close to USD370 (vs. USD165 in 2009) of semiconductor content in the form of microcontrollers, memory, sensors, multimedia and communication chips.

 

We expect the chip content in cars to continue to grow and any move from less environmentally friendly diesel cars to gasoline-electric hybrids would substantially benefit chipmakers. Hybrid cars have roughly 2.2x the semiconductor content of traditional cars, as they are driven by both internal combustion engines and by battery power. The battery and its recharging circuits need substantially higher chip content compared to traditional common functions.

 

 

We see rising safety requirements and more stringent regulations such as emission standards benefiting auto chip suppliers in the long term. If car buyers turn increasingly towards hybrids, which contain more than twice the chip content of traditional cars, chipmakers will benefit.

Fabiano Vallesi, Thematic Research Analyst, Julius Baer

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