Julius Baer: sobre los resultados corporativos, el empleo en EE. UU. y los metales preciosos

Redacción - Lunes, 05 de Octubre

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CHIEF STRATEGIST’s VIEW ON THE WEEK AHEAD: Divergence in earnings

The regular earnings season is kicked off by Alcoa on Thursday. But the real wave will only hit markets the week after this when bellwether names like Johnson&Johnson, JP Morgan or Intel will update on Q3. The main focus is on bottom-up vs top-down expectations: will analysts be right seeing a -6% decline in earnings, or strategists seeing stable to positive earnings growth? Next week will likely give some room for a final revision of expectations before the effective numbers hit the wire. Macro data: services purchasing manager indices, Bank of England meeting and Japan machinery orders to name a few.

 

Finally, a corporate assessment of the damage done since mid-year. The earnings season should show the impact of the commodity slump and growth weakness on corporate profitability. As usual Alcoa first, the rest following next week.

 

Christian Gattiker, Chief Strategist and Head Research, Julius Baer

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ECONOMICS: Weak US labour market report buries Federal Reserve’s rate hiking plans

Friday’s US payroll report has heavily disappointed market expectations. The change in non-farm payroll for September had been reported well below market expectations with 142’000 and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) benchmark in mind for a solid economic expansion of 200’000. Even more alarming, the August number had been revised down significantly to 136’000. With this backdrop the Fed’s rate hiking plans for this year are buried and we adjust our expectations accordingly.

 

We now expect the Fed to hike the Fed funds target rate only in 2016, if possible in the January meeting. There is a pretty good chance that by then the international headwinds for economic growth will have eased as looser monetary policy and fiscal stimulus in China will start to manifest themselves in better economic indicators. Although we do not expect the US economy to accelerate its current growth momentum in 2016, the January FOMC meeting might be the best opportunity to shift US monetary policy away from the zero-interest-rate regime. Given our modest US growth outlook for 2016 we expect no further rate hikes for 2016 after the one in January.

 

The disappointing US labour market report is just marginally challenging the robustness of the US economic recovery but it is a significant blow to the Fed’s plans to end its zero-interest-rate policy this year.

David Kohl, Chief Currency Strategist and Head Economist Germany, Julius Baer

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COMMODITIES: Precious metals boosted by US labour market report

 

A weaker-than-expected US labour market report weighed on the dollar and in turn provided a boost to precious metals on Friday. Gold and silver were up 2.3% and 4.9%, fuelled by further short-covering in the futures markets on expectations of an even later first interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. However, there were no major inflows into physically backed products which in our view would be needed for a lasting rally in gold and silver. Further short-term support to prices is possible, justifying a neutral view while the longer-term view remains bearish.

 

Meanwhile, platinum and palladium rose 0.6% and 3.3%. Platinum continues to lag on worries that the ‘diesel disaster’ will lead to a significant slowdown in diesel car sales going forward. While more expensive exhaust treatment systems should result in a declining market share over time, we do not expect a drop in diesel sales related to the emission scandal. The implications for platinum demand should be limited. Demand concerns aside, today’s platinum prices are too low for sustainable long-term supplies. We thus maintain a longer-term positive view, while current weakness in global car sales warrants a more neutral short-term view. This same applies to palladium, where concerns about Chinese car sales should remain a short-term drag.

 

Expectations of an even later first interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve could provide further short-term support to gold and silver. The ‘diesel disaster’ continues to weigh on platinum, but the impact on demand should be limited. Beyond short-term headwinds from weak global car sales, our longer-term view remains positive.

Carsten Menke, Commodities Research Analyst, Julius Baer

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