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La búsqueda de rentabilidad hace que los inversores exploren nuevos mercados

Russ Koesterich, Responsable de Estrategias de Inversión para BlackRock  - Martes, 03 de Marzo

La renta variable estadounidense registró una evolución plana durante la semana pasada, un periodo de cinco días relativamente tranquilos, aunque el índice de valores tecnológicos Nasdaq Composite Index siguió su tendencia alcista hacia nuevos máximos. Los inversores pasaron casi toda la semana pasada sopesando qué decisión tomará la Reserva Federal sobre la subida de sus tipos en los próximos meses. Esto contribuyó a revertir parte del repunte de las rentabilidades a corto plazo e infundió prudencia a los inversores con respecto a los activos con mayor sensibilidad a los tipos. No obstante, en otras áreas del mercado —especialmente en los bonos de alto rendimiento— hay cada vez más tranquilidad. Entretanto, los mercados internacionales continúan marcando el ritmo de las acciones. La renta variable japonesa ha alcanzado sus niveles máximos desde mayo de 2000. Los activos europeos también registraron un comportamiento positivo. Sin embargo, si bien las noticias del viernes deberían proporcionar cierta sensación de alivio a corto plazo, es poco probable que la incertidumbre sobre el papel de Grecia en la zona del euro se disipe. Continuamos priorizando las acciones internacionales frente a las estadounidenses y, en el universo de la renta fija, la deuda corporativa frente a los bonos del Tesoro a largo plazo y otros activos con sensibilidad a los tipos

Search for Yield Takes Investors to New Places
M a r c h 2 , 2 0 1 5
Few Standouts in Generally Quiet Week
U.S. equities were largely unchanged last week in what was a relatively quiet five days.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which continued to push toward a new high,
was the only major index to notch a gain, rising 0.16% to close the week at 4,963.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped a modest 0.04% to end at 18,132
and the S&P 500 Index fell 0.28% to 2,104. In fixed income markets, the yield on the
10-year Treasury dipped from 2.12% to 2.00% as its price correspondingly rose.
Outside the U.S., stocks largely performed better. For the first time in a while,
recent economic data releases are actually favoring European equities.
Meanwhile, investors continue to struggle to find income, with bond yields in most
countries hitting new lows.
Europe Surpassing Expectations, U.S. Not
In contrast to the U.S., last week European and Japanese equities advanced by
roughly 2.5% and 3%, respectively, extending their year-to-date gains versus the
United States. As usual, fund flows offer a good barometer of investor sentiment.
Money continues to flow into stocks, but investors are shifting out of U.S. equities
and into non-U.S. markets. Last week witnessed the eighth straight week of
outflows from U.S. equity funds, the longest streak since 2004.
Several factors are inhibiting U.S. equity returns. First, the strong dollar continues
to pressure earnings for large, global exporters. The latest victim was Hewlett-
Packard, whose stock tumbled after the company announced earnings would be
negatively affected by the stronger dollar. As more U.S. companies struggle with
the currency-related drag on exports, full-year earnings expectations for the S&P
500 have dropped roughly 1.5% over the past four weeks.
But another issue has arisen recently: While U.S. economic data continue to show
decent growth, that growth is moderating. Last week, one of the better leading
economic indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, fell back to zero, a
significant drop from last fall. The current reading is consistent with U.S. gross
domestic product (GDP) growth of around 2.5% this quarter. Indeed, most
measures are coming in below expectations, with the exception of labor market
statistics. Our read: The U.S. is still doing well, and remains the most robust major
economy in the world, just not as well as many had expected.
In contrast, European equities are benefiting from a string of better-thanexpected
economic numbers, as well as a reduction in the risk associated with
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm in
2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
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WEEKLY INVESTMENT
COMMENTARY
For the first time in a
while, recent economic
data releases are actually
favoring European equities.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or
solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of March 2, 2015, and
may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary
and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to
accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.
Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing
involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility
of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income
investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market
value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest
payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.
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With yields low around
the world, investors are
increasingly scouring the
globe for income.
Greece and Ukraine. Since mid-January, there has been a meaningful improvement
in Citigroup’s European Economic Surprise Index. The gains are not just a function of
the stronger economies, like Germany, but are extending to the weaker countries on
the periphery. Spain notched its fastest GDP growth in seven years.
Investors Still Trying to Source Yield
Meanwhile, interest rates continue to grind lower, despite the better data out of
Europe and signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is close to indicating when
exactly it will raise interest rates. The Fed insists its course is dependent on data
confirming a stronger economy, but investors continue to believe the Fed will hold
back. In our view, the Fed is closer to evolving its rates policy toward more normal
conditions than many in the market appear to believe. We may see a different tone
from the Fed in its March meeting, leaving the door open for a June rate hike.
With U.S. economic readings coming out on the soft side and many investors
believing the Fed to be in no rush to raise rates, U.S. yields have pulled back in
recent weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield has retreated back to 2%. Still, this looks
generous compared to Europe, where 10-year German Bund yields reached a new
all-time low of 0.28% and seven-year yields moved below zero for the first time.
Even in Greece, yields are falling as investors reduce the odds of a near-term
Greek exit from the eurozone. The persistence of low yields is having the
predictable effect of leaving investors starved for income, pushing them into bond
market substitutes. Last week $2 billion flowed into equity income funds.
One interesting example of the search for yield is evidenced in the recent rebound
in Australian equities. We had been negative on this market since last January
and, indeed, Australian stocks had trailed global equities by roughly 6% since that
time. More recently, however, Australia’s market has been rebounding, despite low
commodity prices and the struggles of mining companies. It seems investors
found favor in Australian banks, which pay high dividends. As a result, the
Australian equity market now offers a dividend yield of over 4%, more than double
that of the U.S. market. With yields low around the world, investors are increasingly
scouring the globe for income. That’s one reason we would upgrade our view on
Australian equities to a benchmark weight.
 




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