“La renta variable americana continúa estancada”

Richard Turnill, Director Mundial de Estrategia de Inversión en BlackRock - Jueves, 27 de Octubre

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EL S&P 500 se ha mantenido estable negociando en un rango constante desde junio y creemos que es poco probable que los resultados empresariales del tercer trimestre provoquen la ruptura del canal al alza
El Banco Central Europeo mantuvo su postura en cuanto a política monetaria la semana pasada, pero se espera que conserve un sesgo expansivo
Los datos de inflación esta semana podrían dar confianza a la Reserva Federal de que la inflación se acerque al objetivo del 2%

El S&P 500 se ha mantenido estable negociando en un rango constante desde el voto del Brexit en junio. ¿Serán los resultados empresariales de los próximos meses en Estados Unidos los catalizadores para provocar la ruptura del canal al alza? Nosotros creemos que no.

A principios de año, los analistas esperaban que los contratiempos para los beneficios empresariales causados por la caída de los precios del petróleo y un dólar más fuerte en Estados Unidos disminuyeran trayendo consigo un mayor crecimiento de los beneficios por acción en Estados Unidos a finales de 2016.
 

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1The S&P 500 has been in a holding pattern since June,
but third-quarter earnings are unlikely to trigger an upward breakout.

2 The European Central Bank maintained its policy stance last week, but we expect it to retain an easing bias.

3Inflation data this week could give the Federal Reserve confidence that inflation is set to reach the bank’s 2% target.

1 U.S. stocks: stalled on the runway

The S&P 500 has been in a holding pattern since the June Brexit vote, trading within a narrow band. Will U.S. earnings reports be the catalyst to trigger an upward breakout in the months ahead? We don’t think so. Chart of the week Earnings revisions ratio, 2002-2016 2 1.5 1 0.5 Global 0 Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, S&P, MSCI and Thomson Reuters, October 2016. Notes: The earnings revisions ratio is defined as the number of companies within the index with earnings-per-share estimates revised up on the month, divided by the number of companies with earnings-per-share estimates revised down. The solid lines represent rolling three-month averages of the earnings revision ratios. Global earnings revisions are represented by the MSCI ACWI Index. The dotted line represents the global average from 2002 to 2016. Analysts earlier this year expected the earnings headwinds of falling oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar would diminish, driving better earnings-per-share growth in the U.S. by the end of 2016. This is evident in the upward trajectory of the chart’s blue line during the second quarter of 2016, as oil prices rallied and the U.S. dollar weakened. S&P 500 Global average 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Earnings revision ratio

No earnings-fueled takeoff ahead

But this year seems to be no exception to the annual pattern of analysts steadily lowering expectations. See the most recent downward shift in the chart’s blue line. In fact, analysts have cut third-quarter U.S. earnings expectations by 8% since the start of the year – bigger than the downward revisions in the first two quarters.

Early third-quarter earnings have beaten these reduced expectations at a higher-than-average rate. Yet fewer companies are raising their future guidance than in a typical quarter. Political uncertainty in the U.S. gives companies more reason to hold off on investment. Firms are likely to express similar caution this week when more than one-third of the S&P 500 reports earnings.

Ultimately, we believe earnings beats in this environment won’t be enough to spur a sustained rally, especially given how elevated U.S. valuations are relative to history. We see greater clarity on future Fed policy and the political outlook as more likely to drive risk appetite and stock performance in the months ahead. Against this backdrop, we like U.S. companies able to increase revenues and earnings in a low-growth world, such as selected technology stocks. We’re cautious of traditional dividend payers and prefer dividend growers instead. Outside the U.S., we prefer Asia ex-Japan stocks whose earnings momentum is improving.

2 Week in review

The ECB maintained its policy stance, but we expect the central bank to retain an easing bias for the foreseeable future. U.S. core consumer price inflation came in slightly below expectations, but U.S. inflation expectations are trending upward. China’s official third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report showed stable growth. The data were again remarkably smooth, with a headline figure identical to previous quarters. Global snapshot Weekly and 12-month performance of selected assets U.S. Large Caps U.S. Small Caps Non-U.S. World Non-U.S. Developed Japan Emerging Asia ex-Japan 2.2% U.S. Treasuries 1.7% 1.4% U.S. TIPS 1.7% 3.1% U.S. Investment Grade 2.9% 3.4% U.S. High Yield 6.0% 2.3% U.S. Municipals 2.0% 2.5% Non-U.S. Developed 0.5% 2.5% EM $ Bonds 5.1% EQUITIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS DIV. YIELD BONDS WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS YIELD 0.4% 4.8% 6.1% 0.3% 4.3% 3.1% 0.5% 8.5% 8.0% 0.6% 7.1% 5.8% 0.8% 4.8% 1.0% 0.5% 9.1% 7.5% 0.5% 0.0% -2.1% 0.6% 16.4% 11.1% 1.8% 3.1% 4.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.2% 1.6% 17.1% 8.6% -0.2% 8.9% 5.8% 1.0% 12.2% 6.6% 0.6% 14.4% 12.9% COMMODITIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS LEVEL Brent Crude Oil $51.78 Euro/USD 1.09 CURRENCIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS LEVEL -0.3% 38.9% 8.2% -0.8% 0.2% -4.1% Gold Copper $1,266 USD/Yen 103.80 $4,635 Pound/USD 1.22 1.2% 19.2% 8.5% -0.4% -13.6% -13.5% -0.9% -1.5% -10.4% 0.4% -17.0% -20.8% Source: Bloomberg. As of Oct. 21, 2016. Notes: Weekly data through Friday. Equity and bond performance are measured in total index returns in U.S. dollars. U.S. large caps are represented by the S&P 500 Index; U.S. small caps are represented by the Russell 2000 Index; Non-U.S. world equity by the MSCI ACWI ex U.S.; non-U.S. developed equity by the MSCI EAFE Index; Japan, Emerging and Asia ex-Japan by their respective MSCI Indexes; U.S. Treasuries by the Barclays U.S. Treasury Index; U.S. TIPS by the U.S. Treasury In ation Notes Total Return Index; U.S. investment grade by the Barclays U.S. Corporate Index; U.S. high yield by the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index; U.S. municipals by the Barclays Municipal Bond Index; non-U.S. developed bonds by the Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD; and emerging market $ bonds by the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversi ed Index. Brent crude oil prices are in U.S. dollars per barrel, gold prices are in U.S. dollar per troy ounce and copper prices are in U.S. dollar per metric ton. The Euro/USD level is represented by U.S. dollar per euro, USD/JPY by yen per U.S. dollar and Pound/USD by U.S. dollar per pound. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 Week ahead

Oct. 24 Oct. 27 Oct. 28 October U.S. PMI manufacturing index flash; eurozone composite PMI flash UK Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) Advance estimates for U.S. Q3 GDP, including core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index The GDP report will provide clues about consumer spending and the next monthly core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Markets expect inflation to rise as headwinds such as low oil prices start to dissipate, giving the Fed more confidence inflation is nearing its 2% target.

Asset class views

Views from a U.S. dollar perspective over a three-month horizon

EQUITIES

ASSET CLASS

VIEW

COMMENTS

U.S.

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Monetary and scal policy should support economic expansion, but political uncertainty may dampen capex. Valuations remain elevated. We like structural growth stories, dividend growers and quality stocks.

Europe

▼

Post-Brexit uncertainties challenge already poor pro ts. We see only modest prospects for an earnings acceleration despite a supportive ECB. Multinationals should bene t from EM demand. We avoid banks.

Japan

—

EM

Attractive valuations and improved corporate governance are not enough to o set a soft economy and strong yen. The BoJ is nearing the limits of monetary policy.

▲

A stable U.S. dollar, economic reforms, improving corporate fundamentals and reasonable valuations support the asset class, we believe. We also see more room for in ows given light investor positioning.

Asia ex-Japan

▲

Financial sector reform and rising current account surpluses are encouraging. China’s economic transition is ongoing, but we believe lower growth rates are priced in. We like India and selected ASEAN markets.

U.S. Treasuries

—

Fed normalization is likely to be very gradual and easy global monetary policy is supportive. Policy shifts that steepen global yield curves make us cautious of longer- duration bonds.

U.S. Municipals

—

Richer valuations and higher U.S. Treasury yields challenge the near-term outlook. Munis’ tax-exempt income makes them a core holding longer term.

U.S. Credit

▲

We generally prefer investment grade bonds. Yields o er compensation for the risks entailed, such as rising corporate leverage.

European Sovereigns

—

We prefer selected peripheral bond markets due to higher yields and ECB support. An eventual relaxation in the ECB’s self-imposed limits on bond buying should result in steeper yield curves in the eurozone core.

European Credit

▲

The ECB’s corporate bond purchases and a modest BoE purchase program support investment grade credit in Europe. Bonds not eligible for the ECB program also look attractive to us in selected countries.

EM Debt

▲

We have become more selective given rising valuations. We prefer the front end of local markets with room to cut rates further, such as Brazil, and also see opportunities in hard-currency corporates.

Asia Fixed Income

—

We see local currency debt as attractive in Asian economies with a monetary easing bias, including India. In China we are focused on higher-quality issuers.

Commodities and Currencies

—

Supply rationalization is improving our outlook for oil and industrial metals. We like gold as a portfolio diversi er. We see major currencies mostly stable, even as a Fed rate rise could nudge up the U.S. dollar.

FIXED INCOME

OTHER

▲ Overweight — Neutral ▼ Underweight 

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