Lecciones aprendidas del retroceso

Russ Koesterich, Responsable de Estrategias de Inversión para BlackRock - Jueves, 02 de Octubre

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La semana pasada la renta variable sufrió el retroceso más grande desde el verano.
No creemos que esta caída refleje un cambio fundamental en las condiciones de mercado, pero apunta a tres lecciones importantes a tener en cuenta de ahora en adelante:

    - La volatilidad está empezando a aumentar.
    - No todos los segmentos de mercado están respondiendo de la misma forma.
    - Es probable que las valoraciones vayan a ser más determinantes a medida que los mercados dependan menos del “momentum” de mercado.

Lessons From the Sell-Off
s e p t e m b e r 2 9 , 2 0 1 4
A Challenging Week
Last week stocks suffered their worst pullback since the summer. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average fell 0.96% to close the week at 17,113, the S&P 500 Index lost
1.4% to 1,982 and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 1.46% to 4,512. Meanwhile,
the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped from 2.58% to 2.53%, as its price
correspondingly rose.
While it was a challenging week for investors, we do not believe the sell-off reflects
a fundamental shift in market conditions. However, it does point to three important
lessons to be mindful of going forward: 1) Volatility is starting to rise; 2) not all
market segments are responding similarly; and 3) valuations are likely to matter
more as markets rely less on momentum.
A Number of Candidates, But No Obvious Catalyst
September is living up to its reputation for weakness, evidenced in part last week
when stocks suffered their worst one-day decline since the summer. There was no
significant or obvious catalyst for the sell-off, contrary to the headlines that attributed
the decline to everything from Apple’s supply chain problems to a weak durable
goods report to the potential for a Russian retaliation to Europe’s sanctions. Bond
prices also were not immune, with high yield once again demonstrating weakness.
And while Treasury prices generally held up last week, even that portion of the
market experienced volatility on Friday, which may have stemmed in part from
Bill Gross’s resignation from Pimco.
In our view, Thursday’s weakness appears to be a case of lingering global threats
(add a new one in the form of a potentially worsening Ebola outbreak) colliding
with investor complacency and some stretched valuations. That said, while there
was no single, identifiable catalyst for last week’s sell-off, a few themes have
emerged over the past month.
A Tale of Volatility and Valuations
First, volatility is starting to rise, but from very low levels. Last week may have left
investors feeling as if markets have become much more turbulent, but it’s important
to put things in perspective. Volatility is still low by historic standards. During
Thursday’s sell-off, the VIX Index, a key measure of equity market volatility, peaked
at around 16, still 20% below the long-term average. But an impending rate hike
from the Federal Reserve and slightly less benign credit conditions are having the
predictable impact of nudging volatility higher. As investors begin to prepare for a
first rate hike, volatility should continue to normalize.
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm
in 2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
While it was a challenging
week for investors, we do
not believe the sell-off
reflects a fundamental
shift in market conditions.
It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are
answers. Visit blackrock.com for more information.
so what do i do
with my money?®
 

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