Los mercados y la compra de activos por los bancos centrales

José Luis Martínez Campuzano - Miercoles, 22 de Octubre

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El lunes el ECB anunciaba la compra de cédulas hipotecarias. Pero, no proporcionaba más información.
El martes una fuente citada por Reuter adelantaba que se podría estar barajando comprar deuda corporativa. Tras el shock inicial positivo en el mercado, otra fuente, en este caso ya oficial del ECB, rechazaba que se estuviera estudiando comprar deuda (senior) de empresas. Naturalmente, se mantiene la posibilidad de comprar ABS a partir de diciembre.

Al final, la compra de activos se ha convertido en el Instrumento de política monetaria más eficiente. Al menos, sí se puede afirmar sin riesgo de equivocarse que los programas de compra de activos (QE) han sido fundamentales para explicar el buen comportamiento de los mercados durante la Crisis limitando la inestabilidad que conlleva la elevada incertidumbre (pasada y actual).  Algunos mal pensados incluso afirmarían que, llevado al extremo, los bancos centrales son realmente el nucleo de los mercados: garantías implícitas, profundidad y baja inestabilidad....¿qué más se puede pedir?.  ¿Sostenibilidad? Sí, esta es la cuestión. Y es que el riesgo de todas estas medidas es precisamente su sostenibilidad en el tiempo. Es importante por tanto que la recuperación económica sea un hecho y coja fuerza con el tiempo. Lo contrario supondría añadir un riesgo más a la lista de amenazas a futuro. Y me refiero a la propia dinámica del mercado.

Les dejo aquí una parte de la conferencial del Vicepresidente de la Fed (11/10) precisamente sobre los límites  y la eficacia de este tipo de medidas.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20141011a.htm

*       There is little doubt that the aggressive actions the Federal Reserve took to mitigate the effects of the global financial crisis significantly affected asset prices at home and abroad as well as international capital flows. The preponderance of evidence suggests that the Fed's asset purchases raised the prices of the assets purchased and close substitutes as well as those of riskier assets.

*       For asset prices, the strongest evidence came in the form of reduced foreign bond yields, but valuations of foreign currencies and stock prices also increased appreciably in some cases. The largest market reactions occurred after announcements in late 2008 and early 2009 associated with the initial program of quantitative easing, commonly referred to as QE1, likely at least in part because global financial conditions were extremely stressed at that time, but also perhaps because QE1 demonstrated that it was still possible to ease policy, even when the federal funds rate was constrained by its effective lower bound.

*       Although much of the recent commentary on spillovers has focused on the United States, it bears mentioning that other countries' monetary policy announcements can leave an imprint on international asset prices, with market reactions to new initiatives announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the past few weeks the most recent example.13<http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20141011a.htm> However, event studies tend to find larger international interest rate spillovers for U.S. policy announcements than for those of other central Banks

*       Given the relatively fast recovery of many EMEs from the crisis, post-crisis monetary accommodation in the United States and other advanced economies created policy challenges for many EMEs

*       Along with the boost from U.S. monetary policy during this period, many other factors contributed to the easing of global financial conditions between 2009 and 2012, including macroeconomic policy in a number of other countries and other measures that supported stabilization of the global financial system. EME sovereign yields declined by more during that period than can be explained by movements in U.S. Treasury yields alone, and there was a worldwide recovery in markets for riskier assets.

*       I would also argue strongly that U.S. monetary policies were not beggar thy neighbor policies in that, on balance, they generally did not drain demand from other economies. Federal Reserve staff analysis finds that an easing of monetary policy in the United States benefits foreign economies from both stronger U.S. activity and improved global financial conditions. It also has an offsetting contractionary effect on foreign economies because their currencies appreciate against the dollar. But, on average, model-based estimates imply that the net effect on foreign economies appears to be both modest in magnitude and most likely positive, on net, for most countries

First and foremost, it is to keep our own house in order. Economic and financial volatility in any country can have negative consequences for the world--no audience knows that more than this one--but sizable and significant spillovers are almost assured from an economy that is large. There is no question that sharp declines in U.S. output or large deviations of U.S. inflation from its target level would have adverse effects on the global economy. Conversely, strong and stable U.S. growth in the context of inflation close to our policy objective has substantial benefits for the world. Thus, as part of our efforts to achieve our congressionally mandated objective of maximum sustainable employment and price stability, the Federal Reserve will also seek to minimize adverse spillovers and maximize the beneficial effect of the U.S. economy on the global economy.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

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