Moody’s - El debate sobre independencia Cataluña llevará probablemente a más devolución en España

Los analistas de Moody’s piensan que la decisión del gobierno Catalán de respetar la suspensión del proceso de consulta reduce la incertidumbre política a corto plazo, tanto para Catalunya y España. Esto también puede desplazar el debate hacia una discusión de mayor devolución fiscal en España.

Catalunya independence debate likely
to shift to greater devolution within
Spain
On 14 October, Catalan President Artur Mas announced that an unofficial vote on
Catalunya’s independence would occur on 9 November, instead of the scheduled
non-binding official consultation. e Catalan government’s decision to respect the
Constitutional Court’s suspension of the consultation process reduces near-term
political uncertainty for both Catalunya (Ba2, positive) and, given the region’s economic
signicance, Spain (Baa2, positive). However, this may also shift the debate towards a
discussion of greater scal devolution in Spain.
After Catalunya published its ‘public consultation law’ 1 and call for consultation 2
in late September, the central government appealed to the country’s Constitutional
Court. President Mas’s announcement follows the Constitutional Court’s decision to
suspend the consultation process until it reaches a decision on its constitutionality. e
regional government had always declared that it would act within the realms of the law,
and cited both the concern of acting legally and a lack of consensus among the political
parties supporting Catalan independence aspirations as reasons for cancelling the official
consultation. e unofficial vote will have no legal implications, with no official census
of voters, election commission or support of public servants, and is a way to allow
Catalan citizens to express their views on independence while respecting Spanish law.
Although the Constitutional Court’s decision timeline is unknown, we expect that it will
eventually rule Catalunya’s call for an official consultation as unconstitutional.
However, this decision by the Catalan government and the pending ruling by the
Constitutional Court, does not resolve the debate around increased scal resources and
devolution of powers to Catalunya. e most recent polls indicate that a majority of
voters would prefer Catalunya to remain a part of Spain with greater scal autonomy,
rather than become a fully independent state (see Exhibits 1 & 2).
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2 20 OCTOBER 2014 SPAIN, GOVERNMENT OF AND CATALUNYA, GENERALITAT DE CATALUNYA INDEPENDENCE DEBATE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO GREATER DEVOLUTION WITHIN SPAIN
Exhibit 1
Media poll results to question of which additional option would be
supported in a consultation on Catalan independence
(% support)
Source: El Pais, Metroscopia, Moody’s
Exhibit 2
Media poll results to question about which steps President Mas should
take after the Constitutional Court’s suspension of the consultation
(% in favour)
Source: El Pais, Metroscopia, Moody’s
While we expect negotiations to take place between the region and the central government in the coming months, we do
not expect the central government to offer signicant concessions to Catalunya before 2016 given the May 2015 municipal
elections and national elections (which are expected by the end of 2015). As a result, the political relationship between the
central government and Catalunya will remain strained, with the associated political noise and economic uncertainty continuing
throughout the coming year. However, we do not believe that these tensions will have direct nancial repercussions on either
the central or the regional government, especially given Catalunya’s importance to the Spanish economy – the region accounts
for approximately 19% of Spanish GDP, 16% of the country’s total population and enjoys the fourth highest GDP per
capita in Spain. e political debate surrounding independence is not new and has not affected central government liquidity
support to the region since 2012. As of year-end 2014, we expect that Catalunya will have received €31.3 billion from the
central government since 2012 to cover its decits, debt amortisations, and commercial debt accumulation. In 2014, we expect
government loans to represent 46% of Catalunya’s total debt and believe that Spain will provide Catalunya with at least €8
billion of funding via the Fondo de Liquidez Autonomico (FLA) in 2015.
e next step in Catalunya’s independence aspirations is likely to be regional elections, which will likely represent the ultimate
‘vote’ on Catalan independence. If Mas and his party manage to run on a common platform with other pro-independence
parties, enabling the coalition to win an absolute majority, the Catalan government would be likely to call early regional
elections, i.e. before the end of 2016. In such an event, the region’s negotiating position vis-à-vis the central government would
be strong, and Catalunya would likely be able to satisfy some of its demands, particularly those related to greater scal resources,
within the Constitution’s legal possibilities. While this would likely be credit-positive for Catalunya, it has the potential to be
credit-negative for the Spanish sovereign given the region’s greater potential to generate revenues for the central government
relative to some other Spanish regions.
If a common platform were not found among the pro-independence parties – a less likely outcome in our view – the risk of a
more confrontational stance with the government would increase as these parties try to differentiate their positions from one
another, which would be credit negative for both Spain and Catalunya.