Por qué la deflación ha muerto

Richard Turnill, Director Mundial de Estrategia de Inversión en BlackRock - Viernes, 27 de Mayo

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A corto plazo, pronosticamos un repunte de la inflación en Estados Unidos y preferimos bonos del Tesoro estadounidense referenciados a la inflación (TIPS) frente a los bonos del Tesoro tradicionales
Las probabilidades de una subida de tipos este verano por parte de la Reserva Federal (Fed) aumentaron tras la publicación de un acta de la reunión de la Fed con un tono menos acomodaticio
La política futura de la Fed volverá a estar en el punto de mira esta semanay vigilaremos de cerca los datos sobre la economía de Estados Unidos

La inflación en Estados Unidos ha ido en aumento tras un periodo prolongado de crecimiento moderado de los precios. Vemos indicios de aumento de la inflación a corto plazo, por lo que la deflación ha dejado de ser un riesgo inminente.

 

 

 

 

El IPC estadounidense registró en abril su mayor aumento desde febrero de 2013. Según nuestro análisis, el repunte de la inflación es aún más pronunciado en las encuestas de precios pagados a futuro, como el índice ISM (Insitute for Supply Management’s Price Index). Un mayor número de encuestados afirmó haber pagado más por bienes y servicios en los meses de marzo y abril.

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Our market commentary is authored by Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist. Share your feedback at blackrockinvestments@blackrock.com.

MAY 23, 2016

Key Points

1. 1  We see rising U.S. inflation over the near term, and prefer Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) over Treasuries.

2. 2  The odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase this summer rose following the release of hawkish Fed meeting minutes.

3. 3  Future Fed policy will be in the spotlight again this week, with data about the U.S. economy closely watched.

1 WHY DEFLATION IS DEAD

U.S. inflation has been picking up, following a prolonged period of subdued price rises. We see signs of rising inflation over the short term, with deflation no longer an imminent risk. CHART OF THE WEEK U.S. ISM Prices Index and Consumer Price Inflation, 2006-2016 100 U.S. Consumer Price Index 75 3 50 0 ISM Prices Index 25 -3 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2016. Notes: The ISM Prices Index is based on a national survey of purchasing managers reporting whether their organizations are paying more or less for products and services. A value above 50 indicates more respondents are reporting increased prices. The series shown is an average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April posted its largest increase since February 2013. The inflation upturn is even more pronounced in forward- looking prices-paid surveys, such as the Institute for Supply Management’s Prices Index, our analysis suggests. A greater number of purchasing manager survey respondents reported paying more for products and services in March and April, as the chart above shows. 6%

ANNUAL CHANGE

INDEX LEVEL

A Preference for TIPS

Energy supply-demand fundamentals are turning from a headwind into a tailwind for inflation. Oil supply has tightened, and demand is picking up, primarily out of China and India. This suggests current prices look increasingly sustainable, unless we get a significant reopening of idled shale-oil production. It points to energy’s downward pressures on inflation beginning to subside, in line with the view expressed in hawkish Fed meeting minutes released last week.

Our analysis suggests rising U.S. inflation pressures will persist, as factory-gate price increases are passed on to consumers. It is not just the rebound in energy prices pushing inflation higher. An appreciating U.S. dollar is abating as a headwind. Prices of more stable service-based components of the CPI are also rising. Wages, too, are moderately increasing, as are survey-based consumer inflation expectations.

Bottom line: The odds of the Fed increasing rates this summer have increased, although we see only one to two rate increases this year amid slow U.S. growth. We are cautious on duration, but rising inflation means owning TIPS in lieu of nominal Treasuries can be an important hedge for fixed income portfolios. Longer term TIPS valuations look attractive, pricing in just 1.4% inflation well into the next decade.

2 WEEK IN REVIEW

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes suggested the Fed is contemplating a June rate increase. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 30% probability of this scenario. U.S. Treasuries, global equities and commodities prices retreated, while the U.S. dollar rose on expectations of Fed tightening. Japanesestocksralliedastheyenweakened.Domesticgrowthbeatexpectations. GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Weekly and 12-Month Performance of Selected Assets U.S. Large Caps 2.2% U.S. Small Caps 1.6% Non-U.S. World 3.4% Non-U.S. Developed 3.5% Japan 2.4% Emerging 3.0% U.S. Treasuries 1.8% U.S. TIPS 1.8% U.S. Investment Grade 3.2% U.S. High Yield 7.5% U.S. Municipals 1.8% Non-U.S. Developed 0.7% EQUITIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS DIV. YIELD BONDS WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS 0.3% 0.4% -3.5% -0.7% 3.0% 3.7% 0.9% -1.5% -10.2% -1.0% 3.9% 2.0% -0.1% -1.7% -15.3% -0.9% 4.8% 4.1% 0.3% -3.2% -13.3% 0.2% 7.1% -1.4% 0.5% -5.4% -10.8% -0.2% 2.8% 6.5% -1.3% -0.6% -22.4% -1.0% 7.9% 6.0% Asia Ex Japan 3.0% EM $ Bonds 5.8% -0.5% -4.2% -21.8% YIELD COMMODITIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS Brent Crude Oil -25.1% Euro/USD 1.2% CURRENCIES -0.8% 6.4% 4.4% WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS 1.9% 30.7% -0.8% 3.3% Gold Copper 3.5% USD/Yen -9.2% -26.4% Pound/USD -6.7% -1.7% 18.0% 1.4% -8.4% -1.1% -2.7% 1.0% -1.6% Source: Bloomberg. As of May 20, 2016. Notes: Weekly data through Friday. Equity and bond performance are measured in total index returns in U.S. dollars. U.S. large caps are represented by the S&P 500 Index; U.S. small caps are represented by the Russell 2000 Index; Non-U.S. world equity by the MSCI ACWI ex U.S.; non-U.S. developed equity by the MSCI EAFE Index; Japan, Emerging and Asia ex-Japan by their respective MSCI Indexes; U.S. Treasuries by the Barclays U.S. Treasury Index; U.S. TIPS by the U.S. Treasury In ation Notes Total Return Index; U.S. investment grade by the Barclays U.S. Corporate Index; U.S. high yield by the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index, U.S. municipals by the Barclays Municipal Bond Index; non-U.S. developed bonds by the Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD; and emerging market $ bonds by the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversi ed Index. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 WEEK AHEAD

May 23 May 25 May 26 May 26-27 May 27 U.S. Markit PMI Manufacturing; eurozone PMI U.S. Markit PMI Services U.S. Durable Goods Orders G7 Summit hosted by Japan Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at Harvard University Fed policy will again be in the spotlight this week given a recent strong run of U.S. economic data and the FOMC’s hawkish meeting minutes. Reports on U.S. durable goods orders and the manufacturing and services PMI this week will shed light on the strength of a second-quarter growth pickup — and whether a June Fed rate increase is likely. Yet the Fed’s decision may hinge on external developments; its June 14-15 policy meeting comes just a week ahead of a key U.K. referendum on EU membership. Elsewhere, Japan is expected to announce fiscal stimulus at the G7 Summit, and possibly a decision on whether to delay a consumption tax hike slated for next April.

ASSET CLASS VIEWS

Views From a U.S. Dollar Perspective Over a Three-Month Horizon

EQUITIES

Overweight

ASSET CLASS

VIEW

COMMENTS

U.S.

▲

The U.S. consumer and housing sectors are strong, and growth appears to be stabilizing. We see peak margins and payout ratios limiting returns, however.

Europe

▲

Reasonable valuations and ECB policy are supportive, but weak growth, a challenged banking system and a potential Brexit are risks.

Japan

—

Positives are relative value and improving corporate governance. Yet much is priced in, progress on structural reforms is slow, and the BoJ may have reached its limits in weakening the yen.

EM

—

Structural challenges such as excess debt persist. Yet we see value for long-term investors. An expected slower pace of Fed rate increases is a positive.

Asia ex-Japan

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Long-term headwinds persist as imbalances are unwound. While we view a Chinese currency devaluation as unlikely, the tail risk remains. We prefer India.

U.S. Treasuries

▼

Improving data are a short-term risk. Long bonds have a structural bid amid low rates and are portfolio diversi ers, but vulnerable to upticks in in ation in the short run.

U.S. Municipals

▲

We like relatively attractive (tax-exempt) yields and low volatility. We see potential for in ows after recent strong performance.

U.S. Credit

—

We generally prefer U.S. high yield over investment grade. Higher yields offer better compensation for risks such as rising corporate leverage.

DM ex-U.S. Fixed Income

▲

Both sovereigns and credit outside the U.S. are underpinned by very easy monetary policies. Slowing Fed normalization is checking the dollar’s rise, supporting returns on non-USD bonds.

EM Debt

—

We lean toward local-currency EM debt. Currencies have adjusted, yields have risen to attractive levels, and the U.S. dollar has slowed its appreciation trend.

Commodities

—

Commodity markets are oversupplied and sensitive to downward global growth revisions. A strategic allocation to gold makes sense for diversi cation.

FIXED INCOME

Underweight

COMMODITIES

Neutral

▲ Overweight — Neutral ▼ Underweight 

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