“Replantearse la función de los bonos del Tesoro

Richard Turnill/BlackRoc - Miercoles, 28 de Septiembre

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• Mantenemos una postura prudente sobre los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense a largo plazo ante el riesgo de un aumento de la pendiente de la curva de tipos
• La Reserva Federal apuntó a una probable subida de tipos en diciembre, mientras que el Banco de Japón (BoJ) cambió el rumbo de su política para aumentar la pendiente de la curva de tipos en Japón
• Los datos de inflación de Estados Unidos de esta semana podrían arrojar luz sobre si la economía estadounidense está más cerca de alcanzar el objetivo de inflación de la Reserva Federal, del 2%

 

Es hora de replantearse el papel que desempeñan los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense en las carteras y sobre todo de ser prudente respecto de los bonos del Tesoro con vencimientos largos. El perfil riesgo/remuneración de los bonos del Tesoro con duraciones largas está cambiando.

 

La caída de las rentabilidades nos indica que el colchón de seguridad que brinda la deuda pública estadounidense se está reduciendo. Un aumento de tan sólo el 0,2% en el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense podría neutralizar los ingresos de todo un año. Otros segmentos de la renta fija, como los bonos corporativos estadounidenses con calificación Investment Grade y la deuda emergente en dólares, ofrecen una mayor seguridad con una volatilidad de rendimiento similar en el último año.

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Key points Richard Turnill GLOBAL CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST Richard Turnill is BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist. He was previously Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s fixed income and active equity businesses, and has also led the Global Equity investment team. Richard started his career at the Bank of England. Share your feedback at blackrockinvestments@blackrock.com Weekly Commentary SEPT. 26, 2016 Chart of the week Fixed income safety cushion and volatility, 2016 Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, Bloomberg and JP Morgan, September 2016. Notes: The safety cushion is defined as the percentage point rise in yield that would cause a price decline large enough to wipe out one year's worth of income. Yield volatility is based on daily data over the last year shown on an annualized basis. The fixed income segments are based on the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield, U.S. Credit and U.S. Treasury indexes, as well as the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index. 0 U.S. high yield credit Emerging market U.S. dollar debt U.S. investment grade credit U.S. Treasuries 0.5 1 1.5 Percentage points Yield volatility Safety cushion 1 Rethinking the role of Treasuries It’s time to rethink the role of U.S. Treasuries in portfolios, and specifically to be cautious of long-duration Treasuries. The risk-reward landscape for longduration Treasuries is shifting. Depressed yields mean there is currently little safety cushion for holders of U.S. government bonds. Just a 0.2 percentage point increase in Treasury yields could wipe out a whole year’s worth of yield income. Other fixed income sectors such as U.S. investment grade corporate bonds and emerging market dollar debt offer thicker safety cushions – with similar yield volatility in the past year. See the green and blue bars in the chart above. 1 We are cautious on long-term U.S. Treasuries, amid a declining safety cushion against the risk of steeper yield curves. 2 The Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated a likely December rate rise, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) shifted policy to steepen the local yield curve. 3 U.S. inflation data this week could shed some light on whether the U.S. economy is any closer to hitting the Fed’s 2% inflation target. BLACKROCK INVESTMENT INSTITUTE Isabelle Mateos y Lago Chief Multi-Asset Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Kate Moore Chief Equity Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Jeff Rosenberg Chief Fixed Income Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute A higher price for long-term insurance The collapsing cushion comes as long-term yields are starting to rise. We see a steeper yield curve ahead amid a gradual pivot toward fiscal expansion globally, although central banks still have the ability to limit any unwanted yield rises. Major central banks are displaying a tolerance for letting inflation run hotter, and the Fed has adopted a go-slow approach to raising rates. Central banks appear to be approaching limits in the effectiveness of extraordinary monetary easing, as was evident in the BoJ’s shift last week to policy tools that steepen the local yield curve. U.S. Treasuries are becoming less attractive to non-U.S. investors, as the increased cost of currency hedging is wiping out the extra yield Treasuries offer. Finally, bonds tend to have higher correlations to stocks during periods when markets are concerned about Fed tightening, damaging their traditional role as portfolio diversifiers. This is a risk as the central bank’s December meeting approaches. Longer-maturity U.S. government bonds still have a role to play — and should buffer portfolios in any flights to safety. But investors today are paying a lot for this diversification benefit. We prefer shorter-term corporate and municipal bonds, whose yields have temporarily spiked ahead of U.S. money market reforms in October. Overall, we favor credit markets and see a role for other portfolio diversifiers such as gold. 2 Week in review • The BoJ shifted its policy to target local 10-year government bond yields and steepen the yield curve, while maintaining its asset purchase target. • The Fed kept rates unchanged but strongly implied a likely rate rise by year-end as well as a relatively slow and shallow rate-increase path. • Japanese financials rallied as the BoJ policy shift included a change in the mix of its equity purchases toward the relatively financials-heavy TOPIX index. BONDS

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