“Sobreponderación en renta variable emergente”

Richard Turnill, Director Mundial de Estrategia de Inversión en BlackRock.  - Viernes, 26 de Agosto

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Revisamos al alza nuestra visión sobre la renta variable emergente y la sobreponderamos, en vista de la mejora de las previsiones de crecimiento mundial y dado que los tipos de interés continúan en niveles bajos
Los miembros de la Reserva Federal (Fed) parecen estar divididos sobre la orientación que ha de tomar su política. El Líbor alcanzó su máximo de los últimos siete años, anticipándose a las reformas del mercado monetario estadounidense
Es posible que la presidenta de la Fed, Janet Yellen, dé pistas sobre la orientación de su política monetaria en su ponencia de la reunión anual de la institución en Jackson Hole

El crecimiento de los mercados emergentes se estabiliza en un entorno de recuperación del crecimiento a escala mundial y de tipos más bajos durante más tiempo. Esto nos lleva a revisar al alza nuestra visión sobre la renta variable emergente y a sobreponderarla. Nuestros análisis muestran que el crecimiento global puede sorprender al alza respecto al consenso de mercado.

 

 

La política monetaria acomodaticia a nivel global y unas perspectivas más optimistas sobre el crecimiento mundial han contribuido a estabilizar el dólar estadounidense, sustentar el repunte de los precios de materias primas y potenciar una recuperación de las exportaciones emergentes, tal y como muestra el gráfico anterior.

 

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1We upgrade emerging market (EM) equities to overweight, as global growth expectations pick up and interest rates stay low.

2Federal Reserve (Fed) officials appear split on policy direction. LIBOR hit seven-year highs ahead of U.S. money market reforms.

3Fed Chair Janet Yellen may shed light on future policy moves in a speech at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole meeting.

1 Upgrading EM equities to overweight

We have upgraded our view on EM equities to overweight, as EM growth stabilizes amid a pickup in global growth and a lower-for-longer interest rate environment. Chart of the week EM exports, corporate earnings and commodity prices, 2001–2016 60% 40 20 0 -20 -40 Earnings Commodity prices Exports 2011 2014 2016 2002 2005 2008 Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, MSCI, Thomson Reuters, August 2016. Notes: Exports are based on the value of goods exported by developing countries and do not include services. Earnings are based on 12-month forward estimates for companies in the MSCI Emerging Market Index. Commodity prices are based on the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index. There may be upside to consensus estimates of global growth, our analysis shows. Accommodative monetary policy worldwide and a brighter economic growth outlook have helped stabilize the U.S. dollar, underpin the rebound in commodity prices, and drive a recovery in EM export growth. EM corporate earnings are now improving, as seen in the chart above.

Annual change

EM equities benefit from “lower-for-longer” environment

The “lower-for-longer” rate outlook reduces the risk of a sharply rising U.S. dollar, expands the scope for EM rate cuts (25 so far this year), and makes high-yielding EM assets relatively attractive. Investors have been warming up to emerging markets since February, and their risk appetite appears to be broadening. Even offshore Chinese equities — a performance laggard this year — have started to catch up despite weaker economic data from China in July.

EM equity exchange-traded and mutual funds have attracted $26 billion of inflows since February, reversing a fraction of the roughly $150 billion that had exited the asset class since the 2013 taper tantrum, EPFR Global data show. We see room for further inflows. Asian investors are already rotating into equities, as local bond yields have dropped to new lows under the stampede of a yield-hungry horde. EM equities are trading at a 24% discount to global developed markets on forward earnings multiples. Fundamentals could further improve, we believe, as EM companies focus on controlling expenses and targeting profits over market share gains.

Risks to EM equities include a sudden spike in the U.S. dollar, a renewed weakness in commodities and economic risks in China. Within EM equities we prefer countries showing economic improvements or having clear reform catalysts, including India and ASEAN countries.

2 Week in review

The Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting minutes show split opinions on policy direction. LIBOR rose to a seven-year high ahead of U.S. money market reforms. China allowed global investors to access the Shenzhen Stock Exchange via a Hong Kong trade link — a positive step in opening up its financial markets. Japan’s second-quarter economic growth data disappointed. The yen’s 17% rise against the dollar this year weighs on Japanese exports and offsets the effects of monetary easing. Global snapshot Weekly and 12-month performance of selected assets U.S. Large Caps U.S. Small Caps Non-U.S. World Non-U.S. Developed Japan Emerging Asia Ex Japan 2.1% U.S. Treasuries 1.6% 1.4% U.S. TIPS 1.6% 3.2% U.S. Investment Grade 2.8% 3.4% U.S. High Yield 6.3% 2.4% U.S. Municipals 1.7% 2.5% Non-U.S. Developed 0.5% 2.5% EM $ Bonds 4.9% EQUITIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS DIV. YIELD BONDS WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS YIELD 0.0% 6.8% 5.0% -0.3% 5.1% 4.6% 0.6% 9.9% 4.4% -0.1% 6.6% 5.1% -0.4% 5.7% 0.3% -0.1% 9.1% 8.6% -0.6% 1.3% -3.4% 0.5% 14.0% 8.6% -1.0% 1.5% -1.3% 0.0% 4.4% 6.9% 0.1% 16.6% 11.0% 0.6% 14.2% 13.8% 0.0% 11.2% 9.3% 0.4% 14.5% 14.5% COMMODITIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS LEVEL Brent Crude Oil $50.88 Euro/USD 1.13 CURRENCIES WEEK YTD 12 MONTHS LEVEL 8.3% 36.5% 7.9% 1.5% 4.3% 1.8% Gold Copper $1,341 USD/Yen 100.22 $4,798 Pound/USD 1.31 0.4% 26.4% 18.3% -1.1% -16.6% -19.0% 0.8% 2.0% -3.9% 1.2% -11.3% -16.6% Source: Bloomberg. As of Aug. 19, 2016. Notes: Weekly data through Friday. Equity and bond performance are measured in total index returns in U.S. dollars. U.S. large caps are represented by the S&P 500 Index; U.S. small caps are represented by the Russell 2000 Index; Non-U.S. world equity by the MSCI ACWI ex U.S.; non-U.S. developed equity by the MSCI EAFE Index; Japan, Emerging and Asia ex-Japan by their respective MSCI Indexes; U.S. Treasuries by the Barclays U.S. Treasury Index; U.S. TIPS by the U.S. Treasury In ation Notes Total Return Index; U.S. investment grade by the Barclays U.S. Corporate Index; U.S. high yield by the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index; U.S. municipals by the Barclays Municipal Bond Index; non-U.S. developed bonds by the Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD; and emerging market $ bonds by the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversi ed Index. Brent crude oil prices are in U.S. dollars per barrel, gold prices are in U.S. dollar per troy ounce and copper prices are in U.S. dollar per metric ton. The Euro/USD level is represented by U.S. dollar per euro, USD/JPY by yen per U.S. dollar and Pound/USD by U.S. dollar per pound. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 Week ahead

Aug. 22 Aug. 23 Aug. 25 Aug. 26 August Nikkei Japan Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) August Eurozone Flash PMI; U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI August German Ifo survey Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole may shed light on the central bank’s thinking on the direction of future monetary policy. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and a Yellen protégé, published a letter this week calling for a reassessment of monetary policy frameworks. His suggestion for combating the challenges of a low-rate world included higher inflation targets or replacing inflation targets with nominal GDP targets. This could signal a willingness of policymakers to let inflation run hotter. Investors will also look at the PMI data — a gauge of business activity — from a few advanced economies, for confirmation that global economic growth is on a solid footing.

Asset class views

Views from a U.S. dollar perspective over a three-month horizon

ASSET CLASS

VIEW

COMMENTS

U.S.

—

Consumption and labor markets are strong, but valuations are elevated. Further gains require a meaningful improvement in earnings. We like dividend growers and quality stocks.

Europe

▼

ECB stimulus is supportive, but post-Brexit uncertainty challenges already poor pro ts. A weak pound helps UK exporters; we are cautious on UK domestic stocks and European banks.

Japan

—

Attractive valuations and better corporate governance are not enough to o set a soft economy and rising yen. The BoJ is nearing the limits of monetary policy; structural reforms are needed.

EM

▲

▲

A stable U.S. dollar, economic reform momentum, and improving corporate fundamentals support the asset class. We see further room for in ows given reasonable valuations and light investor positioning.

Asia ex-Japan

Financial sector reform and rising current account surpluses are encouraging. China’s economic transition is ongoing, but we believe lower growth rates are priced in. We like India and ASEAN markets.

U.S. Treasuries

—

A Fed on hold and easy global monetary policy o er support near term. Long- maturity bonds have a structural bid amid low rates and are diversi ers.

U.S. Municipals

▲

We favor munis for their tax-exempt income, low volatility and strong demand from investors seeking stability and yield. We prefer bonds tied to speci c revenue streams.

U.S. Credit

▲

We generally prefer investment-grade bonds. Yields o er compensation for the risks entailed, such as rising corporate leverage.

DM ex-U.S. Fixed Income

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We prefer selected sovereigns in the eurozone’s periphery over the core due to higher yields and ECB support. ECB and BoE corporate QE programs have pushed spreads lower, making us more cautious.

EM Debt

▲

We prefer high yield hard-currency debt, but are cautious on commodity exporters. We like local-currency debt in Brazil, India, Indonesia and Poland for those who can stomach volatility.

Commodities

—

Commodity markets are oversupplied. Oil fundamentals have improved, but we see much of this as priced in. We like gold as a portfolio diversi er.

EQUITIES

FIXED INCOME

COMMODITIES

▲ Overweight — Neutral ▼ Underweight 

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