Iinforme semanal economía global

Global Research de Bank of America Merrill Lynch - Viernes, 21 de Julio

• 
• 
• 
• 
• • 
  • 
  • 

Global Economic Weekly: GLOBALcycle churns higher • The modest gains in global economic activity in 1Q 2017 continued into 2Q, with DM picking up the mantle from EM. •  EM activity remained steady in 2Q after substantial acceleration in 1Q, particularly in India, Turkey and Indonesia. •  In DM, the Euro area showed solid improvement throughout 1H, while the US and the UK recovered in 2Q after slumping in 1Q.

Global Letter: GLOBALcycle churns higher

Our GLOBALcycle indicator is a real-time measure of economic activity covering 80% of the world economy. It is an extension of our GEMcycle indicator, which focuses on the GEMs-10 economies. The GLOBALcycle indicator shows that the modest gains in global economic activity in 1Q 2017 continued into 2Q, with DM picking up the mantle from EM.

United States: tinkering with GDP

Next week is the annual 2017 revision to the NIPAs, which will update real GDP growth and PCE inflation since 2014. We expect only slight changes. More important will be 2Q GDP growth, which we expect will accelerate to 2.1%.

Euro Area: ECB Review - rendez-vous in the fall

The ECB has clearly taken stock of market movements since the "Sintra speech" and opted for a dovish tone in its July meeting. Our call remains for slow taper from Jan-18 announced in Oct but we push the one-off deposit rate hike to the spring 2019.

Asia: Korea - wage, inflation, and the BoK

Some market participants appear to have doubts about Korea's inflation outlook and hence the risk of a BoK rate hike in the near future. Does Korea have the low inflation puzzle too? in our view, the short answer is "no" and it will be quite the opposite over the near term.

Emerging EMEA: S. Africa - easing cycle begins

SARB surprised the markets with a 25bp cut citing improved outlook for inflation and deterioration in economic activity.

Latin America: Argentina - bumpy disinflation

The disinflation process continues but with some bumps ahead that make the targets difficult to attain. June inflation confirmed the declining inflation trend initiated in May after high numbers in February-April.

UK: inflation down and retail sales going nowhere

What did we learn this week? The Bank of England has less to be concerned about on the inflation front and less reason to expect growth to remain solid with retail sales increasing only because of a one-off boost from the hottest temperatures since 1976.

[Volver]