Informes BofAML Global Research: Comentarios Global Economic | Europe Economic

Redacción - Lunes, 22 de Enero

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Global Economic Weekly: Oil slick? •   The rise in oil prices to date has been largely due to strong demand: it poses only modest downside risk to growth.
•   In the US, the headwind to consumption will be partially offset by a tailwind to energy-related capex.
•   There is more downside risk in the Euro area, which primarily imports energy, though dollar weakness is a mitigating factor.

Europe Economic Weekly: ECB: it wasn’t going to be easy (or smooth)

•   Tricky ECB next week: emphasis will be on sequencing and gradual change to forward guidance. Rate hikes in 2018 unlikely.
•   We look at France's unique challenge: low inflation but rising leverage complicate NCB's position on ECB dove-hawk spectrum.
•   UK: FX boost to inflation fading, domestic inflation still non-existent: challenge to BoE forecast but support for our calls.

Global Energy Weekly: A shortened path to peak oil demand

•   Expect EVs to take off rapidly in the early 2020s, causing a drastic slowdown in oil demand growth & peak oil demand by 2030
•   We expect EVs to reach 40% of sales by 2030 and rising further to 95% of sales by 2050, virtually replacing conventional cars
•   Peak oil demand will be very bearish for refining margins yet positive for NGLs as these will still be needed to make plastic

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: The big shorts

•   We maintain our call for an EM overshoot and expect further rising valuations but find bearish ideas worthwhile too.
•   We like long USD vs HKD, MXN and PHP. Short KRW vs long EUR. Pay Russia 10y xccy swaps, pay Poland 1y2y IRS.
•   Sov Strategy: recent new issue performance in EEMEA gives us confidence that investors still have cash to invest.

Follow The Flow: Turbo-boosted flows

•   The reach for yield continues for another week. IG, equity and EM debt funds have had a great start of the year.
•   With spreads continuing tighter in the IG space and rates vol remaining low, we see no reason for flows to stop.

Global Rates Weekly: Marching higher

•   In the US, we stay bearish and think the next leg higher should be led by real rates.
•   In Europe, we look at soft longs to fade the recent move. In the UK, we like selling 10y linkers vs 30y nominals.
•   We remain bearish front end spreads in the US and UK, see Japan flow shifting away from USTs, and higher French 10y yield.

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