Más del 8 % de caída del VIX ayer.
Hasta niveles de 14.42 %.
Vuelve a niveles cercanos a mínimos de los últimos meses.
¿Tiene sentido en un escenario como el actual?
¿y quién dijo que la racionalidad cuente para ganar dinero a muy corto plazo?.
El EUR retrocede hasta 1.115 USD.
Pero ha llegado a caer algo más.
El siguiente soporte en niveles de 1.106 USD.
La resistencia en niveles de 1.129 USD.
El S&P en niveles de 2083 puntos.
Entre 1848/2120 puntos.
Wednesday snapshot: Golden lineup
Tom Fitzpatrick 1-212-723-1344
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Shyam Devani 65-6657-2964
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Dan Tobon 44-20-7986-3453
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Gregory Marks 1-212-723-7057
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For recent commentary or to access archived publications, visit the CitiFX Technicals website
– A decent break lower on Gold has taken place overnight as we are now firmly below the 55 day moving average with a notable gap to the 200 day which is 5% below current levels.
– Interesting to note that the last time we saw a decent fall in Gold towards the end of 2015, US 2 year yield was rising and the USD was rallying, triggered then by the October 2015 FOMC meeting.
– In a similar fashion, US 2 year yield is rising again and the USD has turned back up, this time triggered by last week’s FOMC meeting minutes and supported by some better US data.
– We will take these recent developments as being consistent with each other and expect more of the same:
ϒ Higher US 2 year yields towards 1.00% and eventually 1.10% (see latest charts here)
ϒ A rally in the DXY Index towards the 98.50 area on break of the trendline at 95.60 (being tested today), and
ϒ A fall in Gold to the next trendline and 200 day moving average currently at $1,163 - $1,168
• Firmly below the 55 day moving average this week.
• We have a large gap to the 200 day which is at $1,163 with a trendline coming in at $1,168.
• Gold has generally been inversely correlated to US 2 year yield and the USD over the months, even if there were short term “mismatches” or noise.
• If anything, this chart says Gold is too high (remember Gold is inverted here).
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
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