Un informe que Moody’s Public Sector Europe acaba de publicar sobre las regiones españolas, concluye, entre otros asuntos de gran trascendencia, que el control de los gastos es un desafío para las regiones, aunque las perspectivas económicas van mejorando.
Improving economic prospects will likely help
increase revenue generation for Spanish regions, but also raises the
long-term risk of expenditure deviation, says Moody's Public Sector
Europe in a report published today.
Moody's Public Sector Europe is a new credit rating agency and the first
of its kind dedicated to the growing European public sector debt market.
It combines tailored service and local expertise with global reach,
using Moody's rigorous ratings methodologies to assign globally
comparable ratings.
The report, entitled 'Spanish Regions: Controlling costs a challenge for
newly-elected officials as economy normalises' is now available on
www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link
provided at the end of this press release.
"The arrival of representatives in 13 Spanish regions coincides with an
improvement in economic conditions, a consequent increase in revenue
generation, and will reap the benefits of structural reforms. However,
the new regional administrations face pressure to increase spending on
healthcare, education, capital expenditure and civil service pay, which
could have an impact on expenditure plans," says Marisol Blazquez, the
Moody's analyst for Spanish regions.
According to research by Moody's Public Sector Europe, Spain's improving
economic prospects will help regional fiscal consolidation. Accelerating
economic growth should gradually increase the regions' tax revenues and
central government transfers, helping them reduce deficits and debt
growth. The rating agency forecasts economic growth of 2.7% and 2.2% in
2015 and 2016, respectively.
In addition, Spanish regions will likely benefit from receiving a higher
portion of shared taxes (PIT, VAT and Special taxes) under a reform of
the regional funding system that will take place under the next national
legislature, says Moody's Public Sector Europe.
However, the rating agency expects public investment to rise again, and
healthcare spending to increase due to the growing elderly population and
increasing pharmaceutical costs as new medicines are launched. Meanwhile,
civil service unions are likely to push for a reversal of salary freezes
and job losses that took effect in the wake of the 2008 economic crisis.
In addition, Moody's Public Sector Europe notes that based on 2015
initial budgets, education costs are now rising once again.
To find out more about Moody's Public Sector Europe, please visit our new
webpage: www.moodys.com/mpse
Moody's Public Sector Europe research is available to all Moody's research
subscribers.
Subscribers can access the Executive Summary at
http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_181423
Subscribers can access the Full Presentation at
http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_181259
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