BofAML - El riesgo laboral en la industria financiera

Redacción - Miercoles, 27 de Mayo

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Conservar el puesto de trabajo en la industria financiera se ha convertido en un trabajo en sí mismo, quizá por efectos de las fuertes pérdidas del sector en 2008-2009, la dificultad para predecir el comportamiento de los factores macro fundamentales o los desafíos a los que se enfrentan los gestores activos de renta variable. Las empresas han estado acumulando liquidez, con una excepción: muchas han invertido en la recompra de acciones propias. Sin embargo, la eficacia de la recompra de autocartera se ha reducido, mientras que las pocas empresas que han invertido en crecer orgánicamente o vía fusiones y adquisiciones se están viendo recompensadas.

 

·         Las posiciones que están tomando los gestores activos muestran que no están posicionados ni a favor ni en contra de una recuperación cíclica. El peso de sectores defensivos y pro ciclo está prácticamente igualado. Los altos costes de protegerse frente a un evento de mercado sugieren falta de pulso alcista.

 

·         Sin embargo, hay una excepción: el active share medio de los fondos de inversión (su desviación del índice de referencia) está cerca de alcanzar un récord no visto en 5 años. Un síntoma de alta convicción de los gestores en la renta variable que tiene otra lectura: en parte puede deberse a la necesidad de demostrar su grado de actividad.

Job one: keep your job 

Signs of reluctance to take career risk in the financial services industry are popping up everywhere. This is perhaps driven by the magnitude of financial losses in 2008-09, the difficulty of predicting fundamentals in a macro world, or the convergence of headwinds facing active equity investors over the last few years; but signs of career risk are evident in a host of metrics across the industry.  

Corporates: manufacturing EPS, underinvesting in growth 

Corporations have been hoarding cash, with one exception - they are spending on buybacks. A record number of companies are exerting this power, with two-thirds of companies taking out share count today. The efficacy of buybacks has been waning, whereas the few companies spending on growth have been generally rewarded. The trade: fade US companies buying back their shares; look for companies focused on growth via M&A, capex, R&D, etc. 

The sell-side: more herded than ever 

The average dispersion of EPS estimates for stocks within almost every sector is near record lows (the exception being Energy, where swings in oil prices have resulted in a spike in earnings estimate dispersion). While low estimate dispersion was once thought to be a sign of certainty, transparency and predictability of earnings, today this may spell complacency or even reluctance to deviate from guidance. The trade: look for out-of-consensus high conviction ideas. 

The buy-side: hedged against every outcome 

Active managers' holdings suggest that funds are neither positioned for, nor against, a cyclical recovery: funds are equal-weight cyclical vs. defensive sectors. And this year, clients have capitulated on rates: for the first time, almost as many funds are overweight Utilities as are underweight - again, no directional bet on rates. And near record low levels of volatility highlight complacency about downside risk, but record high levels of the cost of protection suggest a lack of bullish conviction. The trade: sell bond proxies, swap expensive US protection for Taiwan/KOSPI protection. 

One exception - funds deviating further from the benchmark 

The average active share (deviation from the benchmark) of mutual funds is near a 5-year high, suggesting high conviction on stocks. But this may be driven by career risk among consultants, whose mandates include avoiding paying fees for "closet benchmarking". Thus, funds with high active share are considered to be more attractive. But by virtue of the calculation, maintaining high active share inadvertently forces PMs into smaller names - even if a mega-cap stock looks fundamentally attractive, it is hard to be meaningfully overweight without allocating an outsized amount of assets. This has created a world where mid-caps are trading near all time premia to larger stocks, as funds have been forced into smaller names. The trade: buy mega cap big old ugly stocks - inexpensive, hard to own, and more out of favor than ever. 

 

See attached report for further information.

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