BofAML: ¿qué sectores son más interesantes en este momento de mercado?

Redacción - Martes, 31 de Mayo

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Informe del equipo de Global Research de Bank of America Merrill Lynch donde analizan la exposición a diferentes sectores. El equipo de expertos ve mucho potencial en ocio y viajes y no tanto en industriales.

 European Equity Strategy: Cyclical re-shuffle: move Travel marketweight, trim o/w in Industrials

•   Trim o/w in Industrials - vulnerable to profit-taking given overbought, more bullish positioning & softer manufacturing data.
•   Raise Travel & Leisure to marketweight - we see downside risks from both Brexit and the oil price rally potentially receding.
•   We maintain an underweight in Defensives offset by overweights in Cyclicals and Financials across our overall portfolio.

 

Stay overweight Cyclicals but trimming Industrials

While keeping our pro-cyclical bias, we cut our overweight in Industrial Goods & Servicesfrom +300bp to +100bp and remove our underweight in Travel & Leisure (now marketweight). This reflects the changing risk reward for the two sectors in the nearer term. We maintain an underweight in Defensives offset by overweights in Cyclicals and Financials across our overall portfolio.

Reduce o/w in Industrials after strong performance

We see Industrials as vulnerable to some profit-taking. Strong performance has left the sector somewhat overbought and we saw a sharp increase in positioning in the May Fund Manager Survey (now the second most overweight sector). Combined with some recent stalling in manufacturing momentum, it may suggest the sector is due a pause. We maintain a modest overweight stance given our preference for Cyclicals vs Defensives, our base case for continued macro recovery in 2H16 and supportive relative valuations.

Raise Travel & Leisure to marketweight on lower oil, Brexit risks

We originally moved Travel & Leisure underweight as a tactical call in March because the sector was overbought, had downside risk from the rally in oil prices and as a hedge against a Brexit scenario. All three of these reasons have now receded in our view, and earnings and cash flow valuations appear attractive, leaving a much better risk-reward for the sector. We raise the sector up to marketweight.

See report (attached) for further information.

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