BofAML: Sobre la demanda de petróleo en 2016… y 2017 (Global Energy Weekly)

Redacción - Viernes, 26 de Agosto

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Global Energy Weekly: Three billion miles
•   OECD demand will grow by 200k b/d this year as Americans drive over 3bn miles, but we project a 120k b/d contraction in 2017
•   Yet we see EM oil demand expanding by 1.3mn b/d in 2017 helped by low interest rates, and thus forecast Brent at $61/bbl
•   The market last saw an 800k b/d deficit in 2011, and oil prices increased by $31/bbl or 38% on average compared to 2010

Both EM and DM demand have risen strongly since 2014

Global oil demand may end up increasing by about 3.0mn b/d between 2014 and 2016, well above recent historical averages, with DMs making up about 20% of the growth. However, OECD demand is decelerating and we project a 120 thousand b/d contraction in 2017 as price effects start to fade. True, OECD buyers still favor larger vehicles but fuel efficiency gains loom. After clocking in over 3bn miles in highways this year, American drivers will only see mileage growth of 0.8% YoY in 2017. Other OECD regions will likely move back to structural declines. Fuel efficiencies in Europe are already offsetting miles driven, and the ongoing return of nuclear plants in Japan should bring down oil demand.

Now the oil market will have to rely on EM consumption

In short, petroleum demand in OECD countries will likely remain a drag on global oil markets next year. Yet we see EM oil demand expanding by 1.3 million b/d in 2017, slightly above the 20-year average. In our view, a combination of lower funding costs in local currency and in external debt should feed into faster credit creation and economic activity in the emerging world. In fact, the negative interest rate environment in Europe and Japan, coupled with a dovish Fed, could even translate into a secular growth story for EM oil demand. At present, car sales continue to expand across key EM countries, with India and China posting YoY growth figures of 12 and 10% respectively.

Still, we see a large deficit in 2017 & target $70 by 2H17

In other words, our global oil demand projections could prove to be conservative given the low prices and wide availability of fuel… and credit. For now, we forecast global oil demand growth to average 1.2mn b/d next year, down from 1.4mn b/d this year, and see the oil market moving into a multi-quarter deficit starting in 4Q16. Consequently, we continue to see Brent prices averaging $61/bbl next year and touching $70/bbl by the end of 2Q17. Sceptics should keep in mind that the last time the market experienced an 800 thousand b/d or larger deficit was 2011. During that year, Brent prices increased by $31/bbl or 38% on average compared to the year prior.

Table 1: EIA Weekly Storage Update
19-Aug-16	Latest	Previous	Last Year	WoW Change
Crude Stocks	523.6	521.1	450.8	2.5
Mogas Stocks	232.7	232.7	214.4	0.0
Mid Dist Stocks	153.3	153.1	149.8	0.1
Fuel Oil Stocks	40.5	39.1	39.7	1.4
Crude Imports	8,642	8,193	7,199	449
Mogas Imports	801	610	630	191
Mid Dist Imports	224	92	123	132
Refinery Runs	16,679	16,865	16,658	(186)
Refinery Ut (%)	92.5	93.5	94.5	(1.0)
Nat gas stocks	3,350	3,339	3,094	11
Source: US Department of Energy; Note: Stocks in million bbl, Flows in 1000 b/d.

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