BofAML: Todos esperamos a diciembre
Redacción - Viernes, 28 de Octubre
Europe Economic Weekly: We are all Decemberists
• In our view, Draghi was dovish enough to calm concerns over tapering. He balanced this with the notion that QE is not eternal
• We think Draghi was consistent with our call of six-month QE extension at the current pace of EUR80 per month in December.
• UK: winter is coming for consumers and they don't have a coat. 'The data' will weaken.
Weekly View: Periphery back in the spotlight
Murmurs about Bank of England's independence continued also this week. Meanwhile, European periphery returned in the spotlight. EU countries submitted their 2017 budget plans to Brussels and the verdict is due in the next weeks.
Euro area: ECB Review - Dovish enough
In our view, Draghi was dovish enough to calm concerns over tapering. He balanced this with the notion that QE is not eternal. We think Draghi was consistent with our call of six-month QE extension at the current pace of EUR80 per month in December.
UK: Winter is coming and consumers don't have a coat
We look at the outlook with a sense of Déjà vu. We have seen before what effect rising imported inflation has on growth: consumption squeezed and exports benefitting little. It could be worse this time round, as consumers may not be able to cut saving rates much.
Hot Topic: The other side of the credit market
The latest Bank Lending Survey shows that the ECB's monetary policy measures are improving both borrowing and lending incentives. However, the credit recovery remains one-sided, as sluggish real economic growth dampens credit demand.
Next Week:
We expect Euro area composite PMI to inch slightly up, to 52.7 in October. M3 money supply growth should be unchanged, at 5.1% yoy, in September. As for the UK, we expect the preliminary reading for 3Q GDP growth to be at 0.4% qoq and 2.2% yoy.
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- “No hacer nada, lo que Warren llama ‘chuparme el dedo’, y comprar con cuentagotas cosas que deberíamos comprar mucho, son dos grandes tipos de errores”
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- ¿Es inevitable la Tercera Guerra Mundial?
- ¿Es inevitable la Tercera Guerra Mundial?
- “No hacer nada, lo que Warren llama ‘chuparme el dedo’, y comprar con cuentagotas cosas que deberíamos comprar mucho, son dos grandes tipos de errores”
- El porcentaje de alcistas en la encuesta de Investors Intelligence ha aumentado del 25% en los mínimos de octubre de 2022 a más del 60% en la actualidad
- Alemania, el sistema estatal de pensiones de reparto se enfrenta a un colapso demográfico a largo plazo
- MERCADOS:Buffett, Munger y Lynch están de acuerdo: “Una de las claves para invertir con éxito es centrarse en las empresas, no en las acciones”
- La Reserva Federal se mantendrá firme
- Desde la década de 1930, ha habido 10 casos en los que las acciones estadounidenses ganaron más del 25% en solo cinco meses