Es hora de volver a deuda emergente

La deuda de mercados emergentes está ofreciendo rentabilidades sólidas este año. ¿Merece la pena tener en cuenta esta clase de activo? Creemos que sí, de hecho la vemos como una atractiva fuente de ingresos en un mundo post-Brexit.
La rentabilidad de la deuda emergente ha seguido siendo elevada, mientras que en los mercados desarrollados han bajado hasta terrenos negativos. La deuda de mercados emergentes ha ofrecido durante un largo periodo de tiempo ingresos atractivos, pero sus fundamentales débiles la convertían en una apuesta algo arriesgada. Ahora vemos esta clase de activo preparada para beneficiarse de la constante búsqueda de rentabilidad por parte de los inversores, debido a que los tres contratiempos clave para este tipo de deuda se han convertido en impulsos para la misma.
 

Key Points Richard Turnill GLOBAL CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST Richard Turnill is BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist. He was previously Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s fixed income and active equity businesses, and has also led the Global Equity investment team. Richard started his career at the Bank of England. Share your feedback at blackrockinvestments@blackrock.com Weekly Commentary JULY 18, 2016 CHART OF THE WEEK Sovereign Bond Yields, 2010-2016 Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, J.P. Morgan Chase and Thomson Reuters, July 2016. Notes: Emerging market debt is based on the J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Composite Index; Italy, U.S. and Germany debt are based on Thomson Reuters 10-year government benchmark indexes. YIELD 8% 0 4 6 2 Germany U.S. Italy Emerging Markets 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 TIME TO REVISIT EM DEBT EM debt is enjoying robust returns this year. Is this asset class still worth considering? We believe it is, and see it as an attractive source of income in a post-Brexit world. The chart above shows how EM debt yields have remained elevated, while those in developed markets have turned low to negative. EM debt has long offered attractive income, but weak fundamentals made it a somewhat risky proposition. We now see the asset class poised to benefit from the ongoing investor search for yield, as three key headwinds to EMs have turned into tailwinds. 1 We see emerging market (EM) debt as an attractive source of income in a post-Brexit world. 2 Risk-on sentiment dominated markets last week, as the UK’s leadership limbo ended earlier than many expected. 3 A third of S&P 500 companies report results this week, and guidance could point to a modest earnings rebound ahead. BLACKROCK INVESTMENT INSTITUTE Jean Boivin Head of Economic and Markets Research BlackRock Investment Institute Kate Moore Chief Equity Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Jeff Rosenberg Chief Fixed Income Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Negatives have become positives The risks that seem to have abated: U.S. dollar strength fueled by monetary policy divergence in developed markets, sharply falling commodity prices and worries about China’s growth and a potential currency devaluation. Expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes slumped further after the Brexit vote. Uncertainties around the health of the global economy and the upcoming U.S. election are expected to keep the Fed on hold. Oil prices have recovered, leveling off at around $45 to $50 per barrel. Lastly, growth in China appears to be stabilizing. We do not expect the impending Brexit to derail recent “green shoots,” or signs of economic recovery, in some EM economies following two years of subpar growth. There are risks to our outlook, such as a U.S. inflation pickup leading to higher yields. We’re also paying close attention to market liquidity conditions, global funding stresses and capital flows in China. The attempted coup in Turkey on Friday underscores the political risks in the emerging world. Yet the segment still looks attractive given persistently low developed market bond yields. We believe this relative yield advantage will be a main driver of EM debt returns in the second half. We see hard-currency EM debt providing a more stable income stream than local currency options. EM local debt may offer more upside, however, for those willing to accept currency risk. 2 WEEK IN REVIEW • Risk-on sentiment dominated markets, as the UK’s leadership limbo ended quicker than many expected with the appointment of Theresa May as prime minister. • The S&P 500 hit a record high and 10-year Treasury yields rebounded from the prior week. Japanese stocks rallied on expectations of more Bank of Japan stimulus. • The Bank of England unexpectedly left interest rates unchanged, while keeping the door open for policy easing in August. BONDS

3 WEEK AHEAD July 19 U.S. housing starts; UK inflation July 21 European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting; U.S. existing home sales; UK retail sales July 22 U.S. and eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index Flash The main event next week: The ECB’s policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB may announce changes to its bond purchase program to alleviate the shortage of German Bunds it can buy. It could raise the limit on the percentage it can hold of individual bonds (currently 33%) or change the rule that prevents it from buying any bonds that yield less than its current deposit rate of -0.4%. Also on our radar: U.S. corporate guidance, as roughly a third of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week. Guidance could confirm our expectation of only a modest second-half U.S. earnings rebound