Los inversores están recogiendo beneficios pero hay algunas clases de activos que merecen mantener

El tono generalmente positivo de la temporada de publicación de resultados favoreció a la renta variable la semana pasada, aunque los inversores mostraron finalmente señales de fatiga. Los beneficios empresariales han batido las expectativas en términos generales en EE.UU. y Europa. No obstante, la semana pasada hubo ventas considerables de activos con elevado riesgo. Las salidas han sido particularmente pronunciadas para le renta fija con calificación por debajo de grado de inversión (high yield).  Es posible que la volatilidad aumente en el corto plazo par l renta fija de alto rendimiento pero aún así creemos que merece al pena mantener en cartera esta clase de activo.

Stocks initially pushed higher last week, with equities in the United States hitting
a new record before retreating on Friday. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average slipped -0.10% to 16,969, the S&P 500 Index edged up 0.12% to 1,978 and
the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.39% to 4,449. Meanwhile, the
yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly from 2.48% to 2.46%, as its price
correspondingly rose.
A generally positive tone to earnings season supported stocks last week, but
investors finally showed some signs of fatigue, or at least general nervousness, over
what has become fairly lofty stock prices. Last week saw aggressive selling of risky
assets, including U.S. equities and high yield bonds. On the latter, we would expect
more volatility in the near term, but for long-term, income-oriented investors, high
yield still represents a good source of income.
Earnings Season Lends Support
A decent second-quarter earnings season lent support to stocks. In the United
States, roughly 80% of companies reporting earnings have beaten analysts’ profit
estimates, while 69% exceeded sales projections. Profits at S&P 500 companies
appear to be on pace to rise 6.2% in the second quarter, with sales gaining 3.3%,
both comfortably ahead of analyst estimates. Last week witnessed strong
earnings from key companies including Microsoft, Facebook and AT&T.
Even Europe, where earnings have disappointed the last few quarters, is showing
some improvement. A healthy 65% of European companies have beat
expectations, versus a historical average of 62%.
A Surprising Sell-Off
Still, what is interesting is that despite the genuinely positive tone to earnings,
investors appear to be selling the rally. We saw $4.2 billion exit global exchange
traded products last week, representing the first weekly outflow since late May.
Selling was particularly aggressive for U.S. large caps, which lost $6.8 billion,
while European equities lost $600 million in their third straight week of outflows.
Emerging markets defied the trend. A shift in investor sentiment made it one
of the few segments to experience inflows.
Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is
BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment
Strategist, as well as Global Chief
Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s
iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was
previously Global Head of Investment
Strategy for active equities and a senior
portfolio manager in the U.S. Market
Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm in
2005, he was Chief North American
Strategist for State Street Bank.
A generally positive tone to
earnings season supported
stocks last week, but
investors finally showed
some signs of fatigue, or at
least general nervousness,
over what has become fairly
lofty stock prices.
.

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High Yield Hit Hard
Outflows were particularly pronounced for U.S. high yield bonds.
High yield is often thought of as the most “equity-like” segment of the bond market. Still, we find the recent outflows somewhat surprising. The interest rate environment has remained remarkably stable, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury stuck around 2.50%. Investors have continued to buy bonds amid persistent geopolitical unrest and a stable inflation environment. Indeed, last week provided more evidence that inflation is not an imminent threat. U.S. consumer inflation was in line with expectations, up 2.1% year-over-year, while core inflation actually surprised to the downside with a 0.1% increase. This put the year-over-year number at 1.9%. Despite recent fears over higher prices, for now, core inflation remains well anchored at its 10-year average.
Even with the lack of volatility in rates and a generally positive tone to the bond market, high yield flows have turned negative. Over the past two weeks, $4 billion has come out of high yield mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs). We saw $1 billion leave high yield ETFs last week alone. The recent selling has pushed yields up around 0.40% from their June lows.
High yield has seen significant inflows over the past several years, a result of investors’ quest for yield in a low interest rate environment. Given that, more outflows and volatility are certainly possible in the near term. However, for investors with a longer time horizon, we would hold course. We still believe the supply/demand balance is favorable and that high yield continues to offer attractive yields relative to the alternatives.