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“A medida que el crecimiento se ralentiza, los mercados buscan apoyo en viejos amigos”
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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Miercoles, 07 de Octubre en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">“A medida que el crecimiento se ralentiza, los mercados buscan apoyo en viejos amigos”</h3>
    Redacción
    <p>A pesar de que la semana pasada volvió a mostrar volatilidad, la renta variable consiguió cerrar el periodo con ligeras revalorizaciones. Sin embargo, la renta variable cerró el tercer trimestre con los peores resultados desde 2011. Los inversores tuvieron que asimilar unos datos macroeconómicos de nuevo anémicos: las cifras sobre el mercado laboral estadounidense fueron, sin lugar a dudas, débiles, mientras los indicios siguen apuntando a que el sector manufacturero del país se está viendo penalizado por la fortaleza del dólar y la escasa demanda exterior. Seguimos sin creer que Estados Unidos esté amenazado por una nueva recesión, pero está cada vez más claro que el país no es inmune a la ralentización mundial. Las perspectivas, que se han tornado más pesimistas, están retrasando las expectativas de una subida de tipos por parte de la Fed. Tal y como hemos presenciado en los últimos años, en un mundo en el que la Fed mantiene sus tipos anclados en el 0%, la renta variable se beneficia de este contexto y obtiene mejores resultados en comparación con los activos líquidos y las insignificantes rentabilidades de los bonos</p>
    <p>WEEKLY INVESTMENT COMMENTARY Russ Koesterich Managing Director and BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, as well as Global Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was previously Global Head of Investment Strategy for active equities and a senior portfolio manager in the U.S. Market Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm in 2005, he was Chief North American Strategist for State Street Bank. It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are answers. Visit blackrock.com for more information. SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY?® Amid scarce evidence of global growth, equity investors are once again beginning to look to central banks for largesse and monetary stimulus to help push stocks higher. A Week of Stock Swings It was another volatile week, but stocks managed to end this one slightly higher. Evidencing the extent of last week’s gyrations was a powerful swing that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average from a 250-point loss to a 200-point gain on Friday. For the week overall, the Dow rose 0.97% to 16,472, the S&P 500 Index moved up 1.04% to 1,951 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index lagged, adding just 0.45% to close at 4,707. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell from 2.16% to 1.99%, as its price correspondingly rose. Despite the flourish in the final week, stocks ended the third quarter with their worst performance since 2011. But the key takeaway is this: Amid scarce evidence of global growth, equity investors are once again beginning to look to central banks for largesse and monetary stimulus to help push stocks higher. Indicators of Financial Stress Widen After struggling through a particularly bad third quarter, which saw stock declines amounting to a $10 trillion loss in global equity market capitalization, investors were faced with the unpleasant task of digesting another set of soft economic data last week. The U.S. employment report was unambiguously weak, while evidence continues to suggest that the U.S. manufacturing sector is struggling under the weight of a strong dollar and feeble overseas demand. Growing concerns over the health of the global economy are manifesting in several ways. First, a broad measure of financial stress, the Global Financial Stress Index, recently hit its highest level since the summer of 2012. With investor risk aversion climbing, so-called high-beta, momentum names that are more volatile continue to suffer. For example, at the lows last week, the Nasdaq Biotech Index was down nearly 30% from its July high. Moreover, the returns derived from merger-andacquisition deals have been falling recently. As stocks struggled, bond yields tumbled and prices rose. For most of the past few weeks, yields have been grinding lower on the back of a sharp drop in U.S. inflation expectations. At the lows last week, a key measure of inflation, 10-year breakevens, was down below 1.40%, its lowest level since 2009. The drop in yields accelerated on Friday following the disappointing U.S. labor market report. Not only was the September number roughly 50,000 below expectations, but the August payroll numbers were revised lower as well. In addition, hourly earnings were flat and the labor participation rate fell to its worst level since 1977. As we have seen in recent years, in a world where the Fed keeps rates anchored at zero, stocks benefit, if only because they compare favorably to cash and negligible bond yields. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of Oct. 5, 2015, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two main risks related to fixed income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index. ©2015 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY are registered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA. Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • No Bank Guarantee 5355A-MC-1015 / USR–7316 Lowered economic growth expectations are also putting pressure on high yield bonds. Last week, investors removed $1.5 billion from the asset class, the largest weekly outflow since July 1. Going Forward: Back to Old Tricks Friday’s sudden turnaround in stocks could be interpreted as foreshadowing yet another shift in the investment regime: a renewed reliance on central banks. Not only did U.S. investors treat a weak jobs report as a sign the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold off on raising interest rates (giving bonds an excuse to rally), but other countries are following suit. European equities stand to benefit from a weak inflation print, which may prompt further quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. A similar pattern is evident in emerging markets such as India, where last week stocks benefited from an unexpected rate cut from its central bank. We still don’t believe a U.S. recession is on the horizon, but it is becoming clear that the U.S. is not immune to the global slowdown. Second-half growth is likely to be considerably slower than the nearly 4% we witnessed in the second quarter. The more pessimistic outlook for the economy, which is pushing back expectations for a Fed hike, is also driving short-term yields down. Last week, two-year Treasury yields fell as low as 0.55%, roughly 10 basis points below where they started the year. Investors may be feeling a bit of “déjà vu all over again,” to quote the recently departed Yogi Berra. As we have seen in recent years, in a world where the Fed keeps rates anchored at zero, stocks benefit, if only because they compare favorably to cash and negligible bond yields. This is an environment in which some old themes, such as income-producing equities, come back into vogue as investors gird for an even longer spell of “low for long” rates.</p>
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