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ANÁLISIS TÉCNICO: cae la volatilidad (CITI)
De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:
    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Miercoles, 25 de Mayo en la sección: Al Día</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">ANÁLISIS TÉCNICO: cae la volatilidad (CITI)</h3>
    Redacción
    <p>Más del 8 % de caída del VIX ayer.</p>

<p>Hasta niveles de 14.42 %.</p>

<p>Vuelve a niveles cercanos a mínimos de los últimos meses.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>¿Tiene sentido en un escenario como el actual? </p>

<p>¿y quién dijo que la racionalidad cuente para ganar dinero a muy corto plazo?.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>El EUR retrocede hasta 1.115 USD.</p>

<p>Pero ha llegado a caer algo más.</p>

<p>El siguiente soporte en niveles de 1.106 USD.</p>

<p>La resistencia en niveles de 1.129 USD.</p>
    <p><strong>El S&P en niveles de 2083 puntos.</strong></p>

<p><strong>Entre 1848/2120 puntos.</strong></p>

<p> </p>

<p>Wednesday snapshot: Golden lineup</p>

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			<p>Tom Fitzpatrick</p>

			<p>1-212-723-1344</p>

			<p><a href="mailto:thomas.fitzpatrick@citi.com">thomas.fitzpatrick@citi.com</a></p>

			<p> </p>
			</td>
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			<p>Shyam Devani</p>

			<p>65-6657-2964</p>

			<p><a href="mailto:shyam.devani@citi.com">shyam.devani@citi.com</a></p>

			<p> </p>
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			<p>Dan Tobon</p>

			<p>44-20-7986-3453</p>

			<p><a href="mailto:daniel.tobon@citi.com">daniel.tobon@citi.com</a></p>

			<p> </p>
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			<td style="width:106px">
			<p>Gregory Marks</p>

			<p>1-212-723-7057</p>

			<p><a href="mailto:gregory.marks@citi.com">gregory.marks@citi.com</a></p>

			<p> </p>
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<p><strong>For recent commentary or to access archived publications, visit the </strong><a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/menu/FX_TECHNICALS"><strong>CitiFX Technicals website</strong></a></p>

<p>–    A decent break lower on Gold has taken place overnight as we are now firmly below the 55 day moving average with a notable gap to the 200 day which is 5% below current levels.</p>

<p>–    Interesting to note that the last time we saw a decent fall in Gold towards the end of 2015, US 2 year yield was rising and the USD was rallying, triggered then by the October 2015 FOMC meeting.</p>

<p>–    In a similar fashion, US 2 year yield is rising again and the USD has turned back up, this time triggered by last week’s FOMC meeting minutes and supported by some better US data.</p>

<p>–    We will take these recent developments as being consistent with each other and expect more of the same: </p>

<p>ϒ  Higher US 2 year yields towards 1.00% and eventually 1.10% (see latest charts <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/menu/FX_OV?CVFXWireID=1961319&cvapplnk=true">here</a>)</p>

<p>ϒ  A rally in the DXY Index towards the 98.50 area on break of the trendline at 95.60 (being tested today), and </p>

<p>ϒ  A fall in Gold to the next trendline and 200 day moving average currently at $1,163 - $1,168</p>

<p> </p>

<p>•       Firmly below the 55 day moving average this week.</p>

<p>•       We have a large gap to the 200 day which is at $1,163 with a trendline coming in at $1,168.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>•       Gold has generally been inversely correlated to US 2 year yield and the USD over the months, even if there were short term “mismatches” or noise.</p>

<p>•       If anything, this chart says Gold is too high (remember Gold is inverted here).</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p><strong>José Luis Martínez Campuzano</strong></p>

<p>Estratega de Citi en España</p>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/258211
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