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ANÁLISIS TÉCNICO: Niveles de 13.12 % para la volatilidad VIX (CITI)
De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:
    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Martes, 31 de Mayo en la sección: Al Día</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">ANÁLISIS TÉCNICO: Niveles de 13.12 % para la volatilidad VIX (CITI)</h3>
    Redacción
    <p>Niveles de 13.12 % para la volatilidad VIX.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>El EUR algo más apreciado que ayer a la misma hora, en niveles de 1.1131 USD.</p>

<p>Entre 1.106/1.1225 USD.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>El S&P en niveles de 2102 puntos.</p>

<p>Entre 1848/2120 puntos.</p>
    <p>Tuesday snapshot: Monthly closes to watch</p>

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			<p>Tom Fitzpatrick</p>

			<p>1-212-723-1344</p>

			<p><a href="mailto:thomas.fitzpatrick@citi.com">thomas.fitzpatrick@citi.com</a></p>

			<p> </p>
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			<p>Shyam Devani</p>

			<p>65-6657-2964</p>

			<p><a href="mailto:shyam.devani@citi.com">shyam.devani@citi.com</a></p>

			<p> </p>
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			<p>Dan Tobon</p>

			<p>44-20-7986-3453</p>

			<p><a href="mailto:daniel.tobon@citi.com">daniel.tobon@citi.com</a></p>

			<p> </p>
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			<td style="width:132px">
			<p>Gregory Marks</p>

			<p>1-212-723-7057</p>

			<p><a href="mailto:gregory.marks@citi.com">gregory.marks@citi.com</a></p>

			<p> </p>
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<p><strong>For recent commentary or to access archived publications, visit the </strong><a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/menu/FX_TECHNICALS"><strong>CitiFX Technicals website</strong></a></p>

<p>–    Month end has arrived and we are in line for important <strong>closes tonight</strong> in key markets:</p>

<p>¡  <strong>EURUSD</strong> – Bearish monthly reversal on a close <strong>below</strong> <strong>1.1216</strong> </p>

<p>¡  <strong>USD Index</strong> - Bullish monthly reversal with a close <strong>above</strong> <strong>95.20</strong></p>

<p>¡  <strong>US 2 year yield</strong> - Outside month arguing for higher yields if we close <strong>above</strong> <strong>88 bps</strong></p>

<p>¡  <strong>Gold</strong> – Bearish monthly reversal at the highs if we close <strong>below</strong> <strong>$1,209</strong></p>

<p>–    These developments if/when confirmed would only add weight to the views that a stronger USD supported by higher US short end yields will be seen, as well as a lower Gold price.</p>

<p>–    Short term update (charts not included) – Overnight we saw a close above 111.05 on USDJPY which is a bullish break. A rally towards the 200 day moving average above 116 is likely. Short term supports are at 110.58-67 and then at 109.90-97 (55 day and previous trendline). EURJPY has bounced from the 76.4% retrace against the lows on the daily chart. While it is unlikely to trend aggressively, a bounce seems to be the danger which would mean USDJPY is likely to be the outperformer in the near term.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>·       The last time we saw a bearish monthly was at similar levels in October 2015. What followed was a move from a closing price of 1.1003 that month to 1.0523 low in early December.</p>

<p>·       Before that, a bearish monthly reversal was seen at the highs in May 2014 and a bearish monthly was posted two months later in July 2014.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>·       A bullish outside month would be confirmed on the USD index should we close today above 95.20 today.</p>

<p>·       A reminder that last year we spend 24 weeks moving from the highs just above 100 down to 92.62. This time the move down took 22 weeks</p>

<p>·       Near term resistance levels are in the 98.50 area followed by levels just above 100 (top of the range)</p>

<p> </p>

<p>·       An outside month arguing for higher yields would be confirmed on a close above 88 bps tonight, which should continue to support the USD as the Fed progresses to a more hawkish position</p>

<p>·       The double bottom, which cannot be seen on this monthly chart, targets the trend high at 1.10%.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>·       Monthly chart (left): A bearish monthly reversal at the highs of the trend would be confirmed on a close below $1,209 today</p>

<p>·       Daily chart (right): We have already sustained below the 55 day moving average and overnight closed below the horizontal support level at $1,207 which leaves the 200 day moving average to be tested at $1,164.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p><strong>José Luis Martínez Campuzano</strong></p>

<p>Estratega de Citi en España</p>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/258429
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