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AXA IM: Turquía puede sufrir una rebaja de rating a ‘high yield’

De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:

    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Viernes, 29 de Julio en la sección: Al Día</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">AXA IM: Turquía puede sufrir una rebaja de rating a ‘high yield’</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><a href="http://bit.ly/2al7BXq">Turkey risking a sovereign downgrade to non-investment</a></p>

<p>Weak growth, high inflation and elevated external financing risk</p>

<p> </p>

<p>We affirm our conviction that the downgrade of Turkey to the non-investment grade is highly likely by year-end as the high country risk premium would intensify the external financing risk of the country.</p>
    <p>Key points</p>

<ul>
	<li>
	<p>  Turkey had its fifth coup in the 93-year history of the Republic of Turkey on 15 July. The elected government quickly took control and imposed a 3-month state of emergency period.</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>  Risks to political and financial stability have increased, evident in the sell-off of Turkish assets.</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>  External financing tops the list of risks the country faces, confronted with significant FX denominated debt redemptions of US$170bn over the next 12 months.</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>  Failure to rollover maturing debt would challenge the financing of the current account balance.</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>  Rekindling the refugee crisis is also a non-negligible event, as the EU/Turkey deal over refugees may be revoked on concerns over human rights violations.</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>  We revised downwards our GDP growth and upwards our inflation forecasts in 2016 to 2.6% (from 3.1%) and 10% (from 8.1%), respectively.</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>  We affirm our conviction that the downgrade to the non-investment grade is highly likely by year-end as the high country risk premium would intensify the external financing risk of the country.</p>
	</li>
	<li>
	<p>  Moody’s and Fitch have already scheduled Turkey’s sovereign rating review for 5 and 19 August, respectively. </p>
	</li>
</ul>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/260876

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