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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Sabado, 17 de Febrero en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">BofAML Global Research</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><strong><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=NWZKUShs0LJIZo4tLY440g&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=!L3f0Q" target="_new"><img alt="" class="ilustraciones" src="http://lacartadelabolsa.com/images/ilustraciones/sunrise-1756274__480_2.jpg" style="border-style:solid; border-width:1px; height:90px; width:150px" />Europe Economic Weekly: Still grumpy after all these years</a> </strong>•  The Euro area recovery is in full swing. The probability of a downturn is low. But so is the capacity to respond to a shock. •  Debating some form of federal backstop in exchange for a more orthodox ECB would lead to a sub-optimal outcome, in our view. •  Europe is not only about a Franco-German compromise. Italy matters. We look at the economy and find reasons for optimism.</p>
    <p><strong><u>Global Economic Weekly: Can we trust Europe's calm? (PDF Adjunto)</u></strong></p>

<p><br />
•   The current calm in Europe reflects both solid growth and the fact that no country is trying to follow the UK to the exit.<br />
•   However, sustained stability requires progress on fiscal integration and structural reform, and both are likely stalled.<br />
•   A new crisis is unlikely anytime soon, but policy constraints leave the region vulnerable to shocks.</p>

<p> </p>

<p><strong><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=zZnTctYxgICfdBPOUB89Zg&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=9Q7HOw" target="_new">Global Rates Weekly: State of flux</a></strong></p>

<p><br />
•   10y Treasury rate settled into our Q1 target, and we are holding onto this view.<br />
•   In Europe, we examine the richening in 30y German swap spreads and buyback RV trades in the UK.<br />
•   We also discuss the recent moves in FRA-OIS, Japan flow outlook, and look for real curve steepening in the US.</p>

<p><strong><u>Global Emerging Markets Weekly: It does not feel like Carnival (PDF Adjunto)</u></strong></p>

<p><br />
•   The fear of a pick-up in inflation generated a market correction somewhat expected given the stretched valuations.<br />
•   EM spreads suffered from a correction and investors may be cautious while markets are volatile over the next month or two.<br />
•   We believe that many drivers of EM performance remain in place for the longer term.</p>

<p> </p>

<p><strong><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=Fu-KDa5sQn70Cq6XzLzWmg&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=F7eIuw" target="_new">Credit Investor Survey: Beware of the 1%</a></strong></p>

<p><br />
•   Overweights are up versus December's survey: thus the rally in corporate bond spreads may be shallow.<br />
•   Biggest concern for high-grade investors has now become inflation...<br />
•   ...and obvious signs of investors fretting over 10yr bund yields breaking the 1% mark</p>

<p><strong><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=nJrp6RlBZvAfAlZTxx4ftA&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=lcYHcA" target="_new">Global FX Weekly: When theory fails</a></strong></p>

<p><br />
•   Counterintuitive FX reaction to US data. Our bullish projections at risk, but fiscal stimulus to eventually support the USD.<br />
•   FX volatility set to rise on short-term persistence and long-term macroeconomic divergence. Long EURJPY at risk.<br />
•   Quant and technicals bullish JPY. New trade: buy BRL/CLP.</p>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/271384
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