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BofAML _ informe economía global

De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:

    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Lunes, 20 de Febrero en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">BofAML _ informe economía global</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=FZPadqVmEqikGpHMftrbJg&e=presthaya.fixter%40baml.com&h=cN8PNA" target="_blank"><img alt="" class="ilustraciones" src="http://lacartadelabolsa.com/images/ilustraciones/el_mundo.jpg" style="border-style:solid; border-width:1px; height:100px; width:140px" />Global Economic Weekly: Guns, butter and Fed forbearance</a> •  Some analysts compare the current US policy environment to the Reagan years.•  We think a better analogy is the late 1960s when fiscal easing caused the economy to overheat.•  A key risk to the US today is that the fiscal package is too big, creating a boom-bust scenario.</p>
    <p><a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_1556983223559867467__Global_Letter">Global Letter:</a> <strong>Guns, butter and Fed forbearance</strong></p>

<p>Some analysts compare the current US policy environment to the Reagan years. We think a better analogy is the late 1960s when fiscal easing caused the economy to overheat. A key risk to the US today is that the fiscal package is too big, creating a boom-bust scenario.</p>

<p><a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_1556983223559867467__United_States_1">United States</a><strong>: </strong><strong>Should monetary policy be Taylor made?</strong></p>

<p>Those calling for a hike in March argue that the Fed is behind the curve based on typical policy rules. We disagree as it depends on the specification of the rule. Without a golden policy rule, Fed officials will likely continue to rely on discretion, including a focus on risk management. This implies a gradual normalization process. In our view, a hike in March would be inconsistent with this framework.</p>

<p><a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_1556983223559867467__Euro_area_1">Euro Area</a><strong>: </strong><strong>Italy: Government debt - looking beyond 2017</strong></p>

<p>In a no-policy change scenario, Italian public debt is sustainable with market forward rates and consensus ‎expectations for growth. ‎The biggest risk is a return to economic stagnation combined with full return to pre-QE risk premia. Despite the knock-on effects on growth, we ‎think active fiscal consolidation would work, politics permitting.</p>

<p><a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_1556983223559867467__Emerging_Asia">Asia</a><strong>: </strong><strong>Policy tightening</strong></p>

<p>In our view, PPI inflation has likely peaked in sequential terms and will likely trend down in the coming quarters. We raise our 2017 CPI inflation forecast to 2.3%, but expect weaker investment demand growth to keep inflation in check. The still negative output gap and tapered policy support should curb inflationary pressure, and prevent benchmark rate hikes.</p>

<p><a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_1556983223559867467__Emerging_EMEA">Emerging EMEA</a><strong>: </strong><strong>Russia: reflation should still be distant</strong></p>

<p>Consumer spending to resume expansion in 1Q17 on the back of rising incomes, end of deleveraging and rising confidence.</p>

<p><a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_1556983223559867467__Latin_America">Latin America</a><strong>: </strong><strong>Mexico: flat remittances</strong></p>

<p>We estimate remittances will remain at US$27bn in 2017 helped by a strong US labor market. US$27bn adjusts for pre-US election surge.</p>

<p><a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_1556983223559867467__United_Kingdom">UK</a><strong>: </strong><strong>Here comes the squeeze</strong></p>

<p>UK data remain surprisingly resilient. But focus on the consumer, currently the only driver of UK growth, and it seems to us there is trouble ahead. Real wage growth has halved since the referendum and consumer confidence has fallen. The real income squeeze appears underway.</p>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/266768

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BofAML _ Informe Economía Global

De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:

    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Domingo, 25 de Septiembre en la sección: Al Día</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">BofAML _ Informe Economía Global</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><strong>Global Economic Weekly: BOJ to try, try again </strong><br />
•   We expect the BOJ to step up its support for pushing inflation to 2%, rather than throw in the towel as some suggest.<br />
•   Most likely is a combination of policy changes designed to sharpen monetary accommodation and bolster BOJ credibility.<br />
•   The risk is that markets misunderstand the BOJ's intentions or doubt its willingness and ability to succeed.</p>
    <p><strong><u>Global</u></strong><strong>: BOJ to try, try again</strong></p>

<p>At its September policy meeting we expect the BOJ to step up its support for pushing inflation up to 2%. A combination of policy innovations designed to sharpen monetary accommodation and bolster BOJ credibility is most likely, in our view. But the BOJ will need to guard against the significant risk that markets misunderstand its intentions.</p>

<p><strong><u>United States</u></strong><strong>: the entrepreneurs of tomorrow</strong></p>

<p>We are often asked about how things can go "right" for the US economy. In our view, it is a story of stronger labor demand being met with an increase in supply for such labor. A trigger for an increase in labor demand would be a recovery in the rate of business formation which has thus far failed to recover post crisis.</p>

<p><strong><u>Asia</u></strong><strong>: large M1-M2 growth gap not a sign of boom or bust</strong></p>

<p>The M1 M2 growth gap cannot predict economic recovery nor a liquidity trap. It ultimately reflects private firm deleveraging. Monetary policy should stay accommodative for macro stability. Reforms need to correct imbalance in financial system. Some major M1 growth drivers are losing its steam, and the room for further divergence in M1 and M2 growth could be limited.</p>

<p><strong><u>Emerging EMEA</u></strong><strong>: Czech Rep: curb your enthusiasm</strong></p>

<p>Macro argues for keeping EUR/CZK floor at least until mid 2017, but we think 3Q17 provides better conditions. The CNB can absorb more FX without too much stress, but could surprise next year. We see scope for 2% CZK gains post floor. EUR/CZK 12m outright could approach 25.75-26 as inflation has bottomed.</p>

<p><strong><u>Latin America</u></strong><strong>: global factors back in the driver's seat</strong></p>

<p>The Venezuelan oil minister said that PDVSA may be close to offering a voluntary swap of $7bn bonds maturing in 2016-2017 for a new 2020 bond. Despite volatility in the Mexican peso, our baseline scenario is that Banxico will not hike and will not intervene. Investor focus in Brazil remains on reform approval, BCB intervention policy, and ramifications of the Car Wash scandal.</p>

<p><strong><u>UK</u></strong><strong>: don't expect a large discretionary fiscal stimulus</strong></p>

<p>A weaker growth outlook will mean the UK government raising its borrowing forecasts markedly in the 23 November Autumn Statement. We do not expect a large discretionary fiscal stimulus to be added to that large automatic deterioration in the finances.</p>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/262601

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