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BofAML: Los contrarian, alcistas en acciones europeas y bajistas en bonos emergentes (The Flow Show)
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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Lunes, 25 de Julio en la sección: Al Día</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">BofAML: Los contrarian, alcistas en acciones europeas y bajistas en bonos emergentes (The Flow Show)</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=q-AmEzlBi6fe6bS5ayjOyQ&e=presthaya.fixter%40baml.com&h=kaOCJQ" target="_new">The Flow Show: Pain Trade: long EU stocks, short EM debt</a><br />
•   Flow capitulation into "one & done" Fed-plays: Gold, EM debt, EM equities<br />
•   Pain trades: Banks>Bonds, EU equities>EM debt; catalysts = Fed, Italian bank resolution, Japanese helicopter<br />
•   Asset price history around Japanese fiscal stimulus announcements</p>
    <p><strong>Talking Points</strong></p>

<p><u>Pain Trade</u>: record week of inflows to <strong>EM debt</strong> funds (Chart 1)…record week of redemptions from <strong>EU equity</strong> funds (Chart 2)…summer contrarian pain trade = long EU stocks, short EM debt.</p>

<p><u>Stampede into EM</u>: record inflows to <strong>EM debt</strong> funds ($4.9bn); largest <strong>EM equity</strong> inflows in 12 months ($4.7bn)...investors furiously chasing carry in EM debt markets, capitulating into "weak $" winners (gold, EM debt & now EM equities).</p>

<p><u>The Big Pain Trade</u>: = long Banks, short Bonds…note flow reversal…largest <strong>financials</strong> inflows since 2015 ($0.8bn)…largest outflows from <strong>Treasuries </strong>in 15 weeks ($1.4bn). </p>

<p><u>Big Pain Trade Catalysts</u>: 1. strong US consumer/housing allowing <strong>Fed</strong> to hint it is not "one & done", 2. EU/<strong>ECB</strong> bank policy moves = Italy bank resolution, 3. >¥15-20tn Japan fiscal stimulus announcement with implicit <strong>BoJ</strong> helicopter. </p>

<p><u>Big Japan fiscal stimulus = +ve Nikkei</u>: stocks rally 1 month ahead of fiscal announcement, pause after package announced, rally subsequent months; Japanese yen tends to strengthen; <strong>BofAML GWIM</strong> data show exodus from Japan ETF's (Chart 6). </p>

<p> </p>

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			<p><strong>Chart 1: Record inflows to EM debt funds ($bn)</strong></p>
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			<p><img alt="5da52497d70243d8b552c7117ed5d80e.png" class="graficos" id="_x0000_i1026" src="cid:563922035" style="height:291px; width:610px" /></p>
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			<p>Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Global </p>
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