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BofAML _ Mayo: previsiones económicas
De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:
    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Lunes, 09 de Mayo en la sección: Al Día</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">BofAML _ Mayo: previsiones económicas</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=uKXPojx6UO7HGjc9mpJQHQ&e=presthaya.fixter%40baml.com&h=uOPhLw" target="_blank">World at a Glance: May: delayed divergence</a> •   Our core macro views remain the same, including a higher USD, moderately higher US yields, and additional recovery for oil.<br />
•   We do make adjustments in Asia G10 FX for a lower USD-JPY profile in the near-term, and higher AUD-USD and NZD-USD in Q2.<br />
•   Our core FX targets for EUR-USD stay at parity and USD-CNY at 6.90 for end of year, along with two rate hikes from the Fed.</p>
    <p><strong>Key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities</strong></p>

<p>Our baseline macro outlooks remain the same, including our broad expectations for higher USD on policy divergence despite market concerns around Fed hikes. We also still look for modestly higher US yields and continued moderate growth.</p>

<p><strong>G10 FX: changes in Asia G10</strong></p>

<p>We stick with our baseline target of parity for EUR-USD at the end of the year, although the USD has continued to trade on the weaker side. We do make shorter-term changes for USD-JPY, AUD-USD, and NZD-USD.</p>

<p><strong>EM FX: largely the same</strong></p>

<p>While the outlook on EM has become broadly more optimistic, our FX forecasts are also mostly the same from last month, including a year-end target of 6.90 for USD-CNY. We do have modest adjustments to our USD-MXN profile.</p>

<p><strong>Interest rates: not many changes</strong></p>

<p>Our core rates views have not changed after the April Fed meeting, with a forecast of 2 rate hikes this year and a year-end US benchmark 10yr rate at 2.00%. We do nudge higher our UK 10 yr rate targets.</p>

<p><strong>Commodities: continuing to look for modest higher oil</strong></p>

<p>We do not make any adjustments to our key commodities forecasts this month. Specifically, our targets for oil prices continue to call for modest upside into the $50s range for the end of the year.</p>

<p> </p>

<p><strong>The <em>World at a Glance</em> is our flagship monthly publication, highlighting our key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities. This edition has one page devoted to each of the G10 currencies, six major developed-market interest rates, fifteen major EM currencies and five key commodities.</strong></p>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/257396
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