La Carta de la Bolsa

Enviar por Email:
BofAML: ovejas negras y cisnes negros (The Thundering World)
De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:
    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Jueves, 02 de Julio en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">BofAML: ovejas negras y cisnes negros (The Thundering World)</h3>
    Redacción
    <p> The Thundering Word: Black Sheep & Black Swans • Secular macro backdrop of low growth & high debt means global rates "glued to zero" at 5000 year lows • Greece, Puerto Rico, China isolated "black sheep" events not contagious "black swans." • Absent Greek "oxi" weekend vote, SPX 2054 should hold near-term; equities 2-3% away from Breadth Rule contrarian buy-signal</p>
    <p>The lowest interest rates in 5000 years</p>

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:442px">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td style="width:442px">
			<p>Chart 1: This week, market cap of MSCI Greece fell below that of Bed, Bath & Beyond, CDS of Puerto Rico jumped toward Venezuela & Greece, & 10 day loss on Shanghai exchange exceeded entire market cap of German DAX. Secular macro backdrop of low growth & high debt means global rates "glued to zero" at 5000 year lows (Chart 1).</p>

			<p>Black Sheep & Black Swans</p>

			<p>Cyclical mix of extreme monetary ease & gradual economic recovery means Greece, Puerto Rico, China isolated "black sheep" events, not contagious "black swans." US rate shock and/or global PMI's dropping toward 45 needed for contagion.</p>

			<p>What happens in China, stays in China</p>

			<p>June disobedience of Chinese investors to government stimulus attempts notable; and China travails clearly impeding leadership of global cyclical stocks. But until unambiguous evidence of macro policy failure & RMB devaluation, "what happens in China, stays in China."</p>

			<p>Q3 risk-on triggers</p>

			<p>Absent a Greek "oxi" vote this weekend, and respecting current losses/outflows in bonds, we expect SPX 2054 to hold near-term: investors positioned for correction; global stocks just 2-3% away from BofAML Breadth Rule contrarian "buy" signal; China policy makers to act aggressively in July.</p>

			<p>Chart 1: The lowest interest rates in 5000 years</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td style="width:442px">
			<p> </p>

			<p> </p>

			<p> </p>

			<p> </p>

			<p> </p>

			<p> </p>

			<p> </p>

			<p> </p>

			<p> </p>

			<p><img alt="8de5e0c8c52a470da9bb016f0661d7e9.png" src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=ad04113e64&view=fimg&th=14e4ebd0b28665e0&attid=0.1&disp=emb&attbid=ANGjdJ-4Y41Q1jbwlA4m4sh7F24oUlPmoWBuSFbvejfVqsCHa6GZjCttKvNW_uvxKRdvjNYJcFOa7V1Y98FD2AMZ9KnKETAy7ydiW29tn2YXqHHUMIbCECxTzGN8U9M&sz=w1054-h544&ats=1435853593527&rm=14e4ebd0b28665e0&zw&atsh=1" style="height:272px; width:527px" /></p>

			<p> </p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td style="width:442px">
			<p>Sources: Bank of England, Global Financial Data, Homer and Sylla "A History of Interest Rates"</p>

			<p>Notes: the intervals on the x-axis change through time up to 1700 - see page 3for methodology.</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

<p> </p>

<p>The power of global connections™</p>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/242421
[Volver]
Otros artículos en La Carta
Lo más leído hoy en La Carta