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BofAML _ previsiones para Europa
De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:
    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Lunes, 26 de Septiembre en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">BofAML _ previsiones para Europa</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=7ylb5FXAgxrXLKdUG5chmw&e=melissa.anchan%40bankofamerica.com&h=RhUL0Q" target="_blank">Europe Economic Weekly: Doves are back</a> • Germany wants positive rates, a fiscal surplus but no intra-Euro area transfers. This is an impossible trinity, in our view.<br />
•   A 10y bond yield target in the Euro area would be tricky to implement from a technical and political perspective, we think.<br />
•   UK: Sterling's depreciation is beginning to show up in prices early in the supply chain.</p>
    <p><strong>Weekly View: The doves speak, finally</strong></p>

<p>After a disappointing press conference and a week of hawkish comments, the ECB doves finally spoke dovish tones this week. In the UK, expectations of a major fiscal stimulus or a delay of Article 50 triggering beyond 1H17 could be disappointed.</p>

<p><strong>Euro area:Germany's impossible trinity</strong></p>

<p>Ideally, we think Germany's preferences would go for positive interest rates, a fiscal surplus and no in-built transfers to the Euro area's periphery. We argue that these three objectives cannot be met at the same time, neither inside nor outside the monetary union.</p>

<p><strong>UK:Sterling work</strong></p>

<p>Sterling's depreciation is beginning to show up in prices early in the supply chain. Higher consumer price inflation is on the way. But exchange rate passthrough is taking a little longer than we expected, so we cut our 2017 CPI inflation forecast to 2.2% from 2.6%.</p>

<p><strong>Hot Topic:ECB - Be careful with the read-across from BoJ</strong></p>

<p>A 10y bond yield target in the Euro area would be tricky to implement from a technical and political perspective, we think. A commitment to inflation target overshooting is a much lower hanging fruit, but this is still not in close reach.</p>

<p><strong>Peripheral Watch: Italy - positive on risk awareness</strong></p>

<p>Our recent visit to Italy confirms that the referendum is not such a binary event for markets anymore.In our view, economic and political risks are set to remain in the short-run, but there is a broad-based awareness of them.</p>

<p><strong>Next Week:</strong></p>

<p>We expect M3 money supply growth to accelerate to 4.9% yoy in August. The preliminary print for September headline and core inflation should came in at 0.4% yoy and 0.8% yoy, respectively.</p>

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:659px">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="10" style="width:658px">
			<p><strong>Table1: Calendar highlights</strong></p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td style="width:53px">
			<p><strong>Date</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:54px">
			<p><strong>GMT</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:87px">
			<p><strong>Country</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:234px">
			<p><strong>Data/Event</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:25px">
			<p><strong>For</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p><strong>BofAML</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p><strong>Cons.†</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:66px">
			<p><strong>Previous</strong></p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:78px">
			<p>28 Sep - 3 Oct</p>
			</td>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:52px">
			<p>-</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>UK</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:234px">
			<p>Nationwide House Px (nsa, yoy)</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:25px">
			<p>Sep</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>5.7%</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>--</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:66px">
			<p>5.6%</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:78px">
			<p>26-Sep</p>
			</td>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:52px">
			<p>09:30</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>UK</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:234px">
			<p>BBA Loans for House Purchase</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:25px">
			<p>Aug</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>38700.0</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>--</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:66px">
			<p>37662.0</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:78px">
			<p>27-Sep</p>
			</td>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:52px">
			<p>09:00</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>Euro area</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:234px">
			<p>M3 Money Supply (yoy)</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:25px">
			<p>Aug</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>4.9%</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>--</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:66px">
			<p>4.8%</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:78px">
			<p>29-Sep</p>
			</td>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:52px">
			<p>09:30</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>UK</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:234px">
			<p>Net Consumer Credit</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:25px">
			<p>Aug</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>1.2bn</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>--</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:66px">
			<p>1.2bn</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:78px">
			<p>29-Sep</p>
			</td>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:52px">
			<p>09:30</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>UK</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:234px">
			<p>Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:25px">
			<p>Aug</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>2.8bn</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>--</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:66px">
			<p>2.7bn</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:78px">
			<p>29-Sep</p>
			</td>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:52px">
			<p>09:30</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>UK</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:234px">
			<p>Mortgage Approvals</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:25px">
			<p>Aug</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>62.6k</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>--</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:66px">
			<p>60.9k</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:78px">
			<p>29-Sep</p>
			</td>
			<td colspan="2" style="width:52px">
			<p>10:00</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:64px">
			<p>Euro area</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:234px">
			<p>Economic Confidence</p>
			</td>
			<td style="width:25px">
			<p>Sep</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>
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