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FOMC de octubre, todo sigue su curso
De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:
    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Jueves, 20 de Noviembre en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">FOMC de octubre, todo sigue su curso</h3>
    Redacción
    <p>
	Antes, el impacto en los mercados de su publicación. Las bolsas USA finalizaron planas (Dow) o ligeramente a la baja (S&P -0.15 %).<br />
	El EUR se mantuvo claramente en niveles de 1.2538 USD, algo más altos que en la jornada europea. La rentabilidad del treasury 10 años en 2.35 %, también marginalmente más alto.</p>
<p>
	<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141119a.htm">http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141119a.htm</a></p>

    <p>
	Si tras leer las Actas le preguntan a varios traders sobre su impresión, estoy convencido de que escucharán lo siguiente:</p>
<p>
	1.      Más optimismo económico pese al contexto internacional<br />
	2.      Algo más preocupados por las perspectivas de inflación a la baja, presionadas por los precios externos<br />
	3.      Demasiado enfocados en que la comunicación de las decisiones no sea malinterpretada por los mercados<br />
	Y sólo tras preguntar a tres traders. Si la pregunta fuera a cinco de ellos, probablemente tendríamos dos interpretaciones más que serían casi seguro diferentes a las anteriores.<br />
	Sí, todo sigue su curso.</p>
<p>
	Aquí les dejo algunos extractos de la Nota conocida ayer...<br />
	Participants anticipated that inflation<br />
	would be held down over the near term by the decline in<br />
	energy prices and other factors, but would move toward<br />
	the Committee's 2 percent goal in coming years, although<br />
	a few expressed concern that inflation might persist<br />
	below the Committee's objective for quite some<br />
	time. Most viewed the risks to the outlook for economic<br />
	activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. However,<br />
	a number of participants noted that economic<br />
	growth over the medium term might be slower than they<br />
	currently expected if the foreign economic or financial<br />
	situation deteriorated significantly.</p>
<p>
	In discussing economic developments abroad, participants<br />
	pointed to a somewhat weaker economic outlook<br />
	and increased downside risks in Europe, China, and Japan,<br />
	as well as to the strengthening of the dollar over the<br />
	period. It was observed that if foreign economic or financial<br />
	conditions deteriorated further, U.S. economic<br />
	growth over the medium term might be slower than currently<br />
	expected. However, many participants saw the effects<br />
	of recent developments on the domestic economy<br />
	as likely to be quite limited. These participants suggested<br />
	variously that the share of external trade in the U.S.<br />
	economy is relatively small, that the effects of changes<br />
	in the value of the dollar on net exports are modest, that<br />
	shifts in the structure of U.S. trade and production over<br />
	time may have reduced the effects on U.S. trade of developments<br />
	like those seen of late, or that the slowdown<br />
	in external demand would likely prove to be less severe than initially feared. Several participants judged that the<br />
	decline in the prices of energy and other commodities as<br />
	well as lower long-term interest rates would likely provide<br />
	an offset to the higher dollar and weaker foreign<br />
	growth, or that the domestic recovery remained on a<br />
	firm footing.<br />
	In their discussion of communications regarding the<br />
	path of the federal funds rate over the medium term,<br />
	meeting participants agreed that the timing of the first<br />
	increase in the federal funds rate and the appropriate<br />
	path of the policy rate thereafter would depend on incoming<br />
	economic data and their implications for the<br />
	outlook. Most participants judged that it would be helpful<br />
	to include new language in the Committee's forward<br />
	guidance to clarify how the Committee's decision about<br />
	when to begin the policy normalization process will depend<br />
	on incoming information about the economy.<br />
	Some participants preferred to eliminate language in the<br />
	statement indicating that the current target range for the<br />
	federal funds rate would likely be maintained for a "considerable<br />
	time" after the end of the asset purchase program.<br />
	These participants were concerned that such a<br />
	characterization could be misinterpreted as suggesting<br />
	that the Committee's decisions would not depend on the<br />
	incoming data. However, other participants thought<br />
	that the "considerable time" phrase was useful in communicating the Committee's policy intentions or that additional<br />
	wording could be used to emphasize the data dependence<br />
	of the Committee's decision process. A<br />
	couple of them noted that the removal of the "considerable<br />
	time" phrase might be seen as signaling a significant<br />
	shift in the stance of policy, potentially resulting in an<br />
	unintended tightening of financial conditions. A couple<br />
	of others thought that the current forward guidance<br />
	might be read as suggesting an earlier date of liftoff than<br />
	was likely to prove appropriate, given the outlook for inflation<br />
	and the downside risks to the economy associated<br />
	with the effective lower bound on interest rates. With<br />
	regard to the pace of interest rate increases after the start<br />
	of policy normalization, a number of participants<br />
	thought that it could soon be helpful to clarify the Committee's<br />
	likely approach. It was noted that communication<br />
	about post-liftoff policy would pose challenges<br />
	given the inherent uncertainty of the economic and financial<br />
	outlook and the Committee's desire to retain<br />
	flexibility to adjust policy in response to the incoming<br />
	data. Most participants supported retaining the language<br />
	in the statement indicating that the Committee anticipates<br />
	that economic conditions may warrant keeping the<br />
	target range for the federal funds rate below longer-run<br />
	normal levels even after employment and inflation are<br />
	near mandate-consistent levels. However, a couple of<br />
	participants thought that the language should be<br />
	amended in light of the prescriptions suggested by many<br />
	monetary policy rules and the risks associated with keeping<br />
	interest rates below their longer-run values for an extended<br />
	period of time.</p>
<p>
	La posición de estos últimos sigue sin traducirse en decisiones concretas. Por el momento.</p>
<p>
	José Luis Martínez Campuzano<br />
	Estratega de Citi en España</p>

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