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Informes BofAML Global Research: Comentarios Global Economic | Europe Economic
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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Lunes, 22 de Enero en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">Informes BofAML Global Research: Comentarios Global Economic | Europe Economic</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><strong><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=aYFCmHTlPpx6OkkAO9ngPQ&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=7G4utg" target="_blank"><img alt="" class="ilustraciones" src="http://lacartadelabolsa.com/images/ilustraciones/petrole_1.jpg" style="border-style:solid; border-width:1px; height:74px; width:150px" />Global Economic Weekly: Oil slick?</a> </strong>•   The rise in oil prices to date has been largely due to strong demand: it poses only modest downside risk to growth.<br />
•   In the US, the headwind to consumption will be partially offset by a tailwind to energy-related capex.<br />
•   There is more downside risk in the Euro area, which primarily imports energy, though dollar weakness is a mitigating factor.</p>
    <p><strong><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=z5mASeT4a1P7VI94mT-2oA&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=vpuRYw" target="_blank">Europe Economic Weekly: ECB: it wasn’t going to be easy (or smooth)</a></strong></p>

<p><br />
•   Tricky ECB next week: emphasis will be on sequencing and gradual change to forward guidance. Rate hikes in 2018 unlikely.<br />
•   We look at France's unique challenge: low inflation but rising leverage complicate NCB's position on ECB dove-hawk spectrum.<br />
•   UK: FX boost to inflation fading, domestic inflation still non-existent: challenge to BoE forecast but support for our calls.</p>

<p><strong><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=zA19gG1JP8NqU3xtuQqicg&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=9Eb6Ww" target="_blank">Global Energy Weekly: A shortened path to peak oil demand</a></strong></p>

<p><br />
•   Expect EVs to take off rapidly in the early 2020s, causing a drastic slowdown in oil demand growth & peak oil demand by 2030<br />
•   We expect EVs to reach 40% of sales by 2030 and rising further to 95% of sales by 2050, virtually replacing conventional cars<br />
•   Peak oil demand will be very bearish for refining margins yet positive for NGLs as these will still be needed to make plastic</p>

<p><strong><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=LxNshJWQ65XAqE7cq4Ud5g&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=jsM-xw" target="_blank">Global Emerging Markets Weekly: The big shorts</a></strong></p>

<p><br />
•   We maintain our call for an EM overshoot and expect further rising valuations but find bearish ideas worthwhile too.<br />
•   We like long USD vs HKD, MXN and PHP. Short KRW vs long EUR. Pay Russia 10y xccy swaps, pay Poland 1y2y IRS.<br />
•   Sov Strategy: recent new issue performance in EEMEA gives us confidence that investors still have cash to invest.</p>

<p><strong><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=5yTtMq2cmsNwnNYpnvvYSA&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=KN9iVg" target="_blank">Follow The Flow: Turbo-boosted flows</a></strong></p>

<p><br />
•   The reach for yield continues for another week. IG, equity and EM debt funds have had a great start of the year.<br />
•   With spreads continuing tighter in the IG space and rates vol remaining low, we see no reason for flows to stop.</p>

<p><strong><a href="http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=BceZ4ow0oZX8RqR4995H3Q&e=alexandra.fletcher%40baml.com&h=xDyX6Q" target="_blank">Global Rates Weekly: Marching higher</a></strong></p>

<p><br />
•   In the US, we stay bearish and think the next leg higher should be led by real rates.<br />
•   In Europe, we look at soft longs to fade the recent move. In the UK, we like selling 10y linkers vs 30y nominals.<br />
•   We remain bearish front end spreads in the US and UK, see Japan flow shifting away from USTs, and higher French 10y yield.</p>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/271000
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