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Julius Baer: sobre el crecimiento en la euro zona, comportamiento de los mercados y agricultura
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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Viernes, 12 de Febrero en la sección: Al Día</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">Julius Baer: sobre el crecimiento en la euro zona, comportamiento de los mercados y agricultura</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><strong>Eurozone expansion continues – still </strong></p>

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<p>Today’s Q4 GDP figures are expected to signal ongoing expansion by growth with 0.3% q/q at same pace as in Q3 2014. German figures have already been published matching the estimates for the eurozone. It is somehow disappointing that growth is not accelerating given the launch of the quantitative easing exercise of the ECB which had been celebrated by markets as a major support for the eurozone economy. The global slowdown in industrial activity, in particular in the important costumer countries in the emerging world, is the major drag on eurozone economy. The euro deprecation delays this negative impact and the accelerating domestic demand growth works as an important countermeasure. We expect eurozone growth to slow only in the second half of this year when the tailwinds from the weaker euro become weaker. This means that the pressure on the ECB to look for more stimulating measure will remain high and expansionary fiscal policy might soon become socially acceptable again. </p>
    <p><strong>Eurozone growth appears still robust so far thanks to the weaker euro. But this tailwind is becoming weaker. </strong></p>

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<p>David Kohl, Chief Currency Strategist and Head Economist Germany, Julius Baer </p>

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<p><strong>*</strong></p>

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<p><strong>STRATEGY </strong></p>

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<p><strong>Dismal market performance may be pointing to further weakness </strong></p>

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<p>Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen said during congressional testimony yesterday that the Fed is now relooking into negative rates. Who would have thought the US 10-year Treasury would be yielding 1.66%, but it is. The gold-to-oil ratio infers we are heading into a crisis, as do the shares of European banks, where the “rally” lasted only one day. Loans to commodity producers and the inability to make money in a zero or negative yield environment are cited as the reasons for bank shares’ continued collapse. However, the fact that the biggest fall is in countries like Greece and Italy tells us there may be something else going on too. </p>

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<p><strong>Gold has already rallied from the start of the year. However, at any moment, there could be a rally in risk which would send it back down. But few market participants think that the rally, if it comes, will be sustainable, and after that, markets will remain in a southerly direction for the next few months. In which case, there is more room for gold (and its proxies) to move higher. </strong></p>

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<p>Mark Shirreff Matthews, Head Equity Strategy Research Asia, Julius Baer </p>

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<p>*</p>

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<p><strong>COMMODITIES </strong></p>

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<p><strong>Agriculture: Chinese policy distortions </strong></p>

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<p>Chinese policymakers intend to abandon state pricing support for domestic grains in 2016, instead allowing prices to be set by market forces. Nonetheless, Chinese corn prices are currently still close to double those in the United States. While government-inflated prices have encouraged farmers to increase domestic production, they have also incentivised buyers to seek out cheaper imports or alternatives. The direct subsidies have resulted in record-high corn stocks which now sit at around 55% of global inventories. Similarly for wheat, the country now holds around 40% of global inventories. Aside from quantity, there also remains much uncertainty surrounding the quality of stockpiles. Because China is essentially a non-participant in global corn and wheat trade, its massive stockpiles are effectively distorting the official world supply-and-demand estimates. Global markets are therefore much tighter than the official headlines numbers suggest. We suspect global trade could surprise to the upside over the first half of 2016, particularly for corn. Despite the recent downgrade of United States exports, we think it is still too early to write off corn given the Chinese distortion coupled with a weakening dollar. Consequently we maintain our bullish outlook and Buy recommendation on corn, and reiterate our suggestion to consider agriculture more generally as a diversifier during today’s volatile times. </p>

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<p><strong>Chinese agricultural policies have encouraged enormous growth in inventories that are distorting world fundamentals. We see the global corn market much tighter than official numbers suggest. Consequently, corn remains our preferred agricultural commodity and we reiterate our Buy recommendation. </strong></p>

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<p>Warren Kreyzig, Commodities Research Analyst, Julius Baer</p>
    https://lacartadelabolsa.com/index.php/253976
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