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Julius Baer: sobre el primer semestre, el empleo en EEUU, el BCE, Grecia y el petróleo
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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Viernes, 03 de Julio en la sección: Al Día</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">Julius Baer: sobre el primer semestre, el empleo en EEUU, el BCE, Grecia y el petróleo</h3>
    Redacción
    <p><strong>The week that was as seen by our Chief Strategist: Treading water on Greece; yet H1 up</strong></p>

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<p>Stock markets posted the mirror image of last week: sharply down on Monday, whilst recouping some ground in the following trading days. Net-net European markets are more or less back where they started two weeks ago. Yet with the conclusion of H1 2015, investors note a +5% local currency gain which translates into a bleak +1.3% when measured in US dollars (all year-to-date). At the same time, bonds were down slightly and commodities more heavily − return compression all the way in a low-yield environment.</p>

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<p><strong>Still the same hotspot got markets trapped in a bumpy sideways move. The US going into a long holiday for 4 July and Greece into a referendum vote over the weekend is telling about the story of the first half 2015.</strong></p>

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<p>Christian Gattiker, Chief Strategist and Head Research, Julius Baer</p>

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    <p><strong>Economics: US unemployment declines, low wage growth</strong></p>

<p><br />
The US employment report, which was already released yesterday due to today’s bank holiday, painted a rather mixed picture. In June, a total of 223,000 new payrolls were created and the unemployment rate declined from 5.5% to 5.3%. Although the amount of newly created payrolls was lower than last month’s 254,000, the magnitude is still in line with improving labour market conditions. On the other hand, the decrease in the unemployment rate has to be taken with a grain of salt, because the labour-force participation rate declined too. A decrease of both rates usually suggests that an increased share of people in employable age have ceased to look actively for a job and left the work-force, contributing to a decline of the unemployment rate. Contrasting with advancing payroll creation, wage growth remained subdued in June as average hourly earnings even declined from 2.3% to 2.0% year-on-year. Given such persistently disappointing wage growth rates, we believe that the Federal Reserve will tend to wait with interest rate normalisation until October 2015, disappointing some market par-ticipants expecting a rate hike already in Q3 this year.</p>

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<p><strong>The US employment report featured 223,000 created payrolls in June. As unemployment declined on the back of lower participation and wage growth remains subdued, we continue to expect a first rate hike by the Federal Reserve not before October.</strong></p>

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<p>Michel Roth, Economist, Julius Baer</p>

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<p><strong>FIXED INCOME: ECB enlarges list of eligible issuers for public sector purchase programme</strong></p>

<p>The European Union is best described as the result of piecemeal social engineering. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) purchase programme, also known as quantitative easing (QE), falls in the same category. Indeed, the ECB continues to develop the rules as it acts. We remind our readers that the bottleneck on the repo market was only resolved in April, more than a month after the start of the programme. And the ECB continues to enlarge the list of issuers eligible for the programme step by step. It started with very few supra-nationals, such as the European Financial Stability Fund, added some capital-hungry agencies like CADES and is now at the level of fully or partially state-owned companies like ENEL. Otherwise, the European market is frozen ahead of the Greek referendum. We maintain our baseline scenario that the market focus will soon shift to US fundamentals again.</p>

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<p><strong>The outcome of the Greek referendum will not derail the recovery of the eurozone economy. We are more constructive on peripheral debt. In the US, we still focus on high-grade bonds to safeguard liquidity in an environment that is best described as anxious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s first rate hike due later this year.</strong></p>

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<p>Markus Allenspach, Head Fixed Income Research, Julius Baer</p>

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<p><strong>FIXED INCOME: IMF publication suggests that Greece will need additional funds and a debt haircut</strong></p>

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<p>Last night the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its preliminary draft debt sustainability analysis on Greece. The report states that at the current stage, with reforms not having been implemented and weighing on growth and privatisation, Greece will need an additional EUR52bn to cover its financing needs until 2018. At the same time, maturities of existing European loans will need to be extended significantly, with the grace period extended by years, while final repayments should only begin in 2055. Further-more, if reforms are not implemented, haircuts of ca. 30% on debt will become necessary.</p>

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<p><strong>The IMF has been arguing for debt relief for Greece for quite some time, but the report has been made available only now. Still the position of the IMF is clear, stating that debt relief will come only after significant reforms have been implemented. Prime Minister Tsipras still advocates a ‘no’ vote on Sunday’s referendum.</strong></p>

<p>Eirini Tsekeridou Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Analyst, Julius Baer</p>

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<strong>COMMODITIES: Oil posts weekly loss on oversupply concerns</strong></p>

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<p>Oversupply concerns burdened oil prices this week. While the surprising increase in US oil storage was related to a surge in imports and thus likely temporary, rig count data published yesterday indicates a swifter-than-expected bottoming of shale drilling activity in the United States. The severe drop in shale oil drilling activity following the collapse in oil prices seemingly has come to an end as for the first time in months more drilling rigs have been put in service. The pickup in activity might be illustrative of the competitiveness of the US shale industry which thanks to cutting costs might have become comfortable with producing oil at prices around USD 60 per barrel.</p>

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<p>The US shale industry has become the oil market’s swing producer and its responsiveness to prices will shape the market for the years to come, paving the way for lower prices for longer. Over the coming weeks, however, we believe oil pric-es should trade at the upper end of their USD 60 to USD 70 per barrel range as strong demand and declining shale oil production are set to tighten supply. Nuclear talks with Iran have been extended once again and a solution remains on the cards. Although oil is unlikely to flow at substantial volumes before 2016, Iran remains a long-term bearish factor for the market. We reiterate our positions in oil producers, pipeline operators and volatility carry strategies.</p>

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<p><strong>Oversupply concerns burden oil prices. The pickup in US shale drilling activity might be indicative of the industry’s competitiveness at prices around USD 60 per barrel. We maintain our neutral view but see near-term price risks skewed to the upside as declining shale production and firming refinery demand likely tighten markets faster-than-anticipated.</strong></p>

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<p>Norbert Ruecker, Head Commodities Research, Julius Baer</p>
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