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Lecciones aprendidas del retroceso
De (correo electrónico): Su nombre: Para (correo elctrónico): Asunto: Mensaje:
    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Jueves, 02 de Octubre en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">Lecciones aprendidas del retroceso</h3>
    Redacción
    <p>
	La semana pasada la renta variable sufrió el retroceso más grande desde el verano.<br />
	No creemos que esta caída refleje un cambio fundamental en las condiciones de mercado, pero apunta a tres lecciones importantes a tener en cuenta de ahora en adelante:</p>
<p>
	    - La volatilidad está empezando a aumentar.<br />
	    - No todos los segmentos de mercado están respondiendo de la misma forma.<br />
	    - Es probable que las valoraciones vayan a ser más determinantes a medida que los mercados dependan menos del “momentum” de mercado.</p>

    <p>
	Lessons From the Sell-Off<br />
	s e p t e m b e r 2 9 , 2 0 1 4<br />
	A Challenging Week<br />
	Last week stocks suffered their worst pullback since the summer. The Dow Jones<br />
	Industrial Average fell 0.96% to close the week at 17,113, the S&P 500 Index lost<br />
	1.4% to 1,982 and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 1.46% to 4,512. Meanwhile,<br />
	the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped from 2.58% to 2.53%, as its price<br />
	correspondingly rose.<br />
	While it was a challenging week for investors, we do not believe the sell-off reflects<br />
	a fundamental shift in market conditions. However, it does point to three important<br />
	lessons to be mindful of going forward: 1) Volatility is starting to rise; 2) not all<br />
	market segments are responding similarly; and 3) valuations are likely to matter<br />
	more as markets rely less on momentum.<br />
	A Number of Candidates, But No Obvious Catalyst<br />
	September is living up to its reputation for weakness, evidenced in part last week<br />
	when stocks suffered their worst one-day decline since the summer. There was no<br />
	significant or obvious catalyst for the sell-off, contrary to the headlines that attributed<br />
	the decline to everything from Apple’s supply chain problems to a weak durable<br />
	goods report to the potential for a Russian retaliation to Europe’s sanctions. Bond<br />
	prices also were not immune, with high yield once again demonstrating weakness.<br />
	And while Treasury prices generally held up last week, even that portion of the<br />
	market experienced volatility on Friday, which may have stemmed in part from<br />
	Bill Gross’s resignation from Pimco.<br />
	In our view, Thursday’s weakness appears to be a case of lingering global threats<br />
	(add a new one in the form of a potentially worsening Ebola outbreak) colliding<br />
	with investor complacency and some stretched valuations. That said, while there<br />
	was no single, identifiable catalyst for last week’s sell-off, a few themes have<br />
	emerged over the past month.<br />
	A Tale of Volatility and Valuations<br />
	First, volatility is starting to rise, but from very low levels. Last week may have left<br />
	investors feeling as if markets have become much more turbulent, but it’s important<br />
	to put things in perspective. Volatility is still low by historic standards. During<br />
	Thursday’s sell-off, the VIX Index, a key measure of equity market volatility, peaked<br />
	at around 16, still 20% below the long-term average. But an impending rate hike<br />
	from the Federal Reserve and slightly less benign credit conditions are having the<br />
	predictable impact of nudging volatility higher. As investors begin to prepare for a<br />
	first rate hike, volatility should continue to normalize.<br />
	Russ Koesterich, Managing Director, is<br />
	BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment<br />
	Strategist, as well as Global Chief<br />
	Investment Strategist for BlackRock’s<br />
	iShares business. Mr. Koesterich was<br />
	previously Global Head of Investment<br />
	Strategy for active equities and a senior<br />
	portfolio manager in the U.S. Market<br />
	Neutral Group. Prior to joining the firm<br />
	in 2005, he was Chief North American<br />
	Strategist for State Street Bank.<br />
	While it was a challenging<br />
	week for investors, we do<br />
	not believe the sell-off<br />
	reflects a fundamental<br />
	shift in market conditions.<br />
	It’s the question on everyone’s mind. And fortunately, there are<br />
	answers. Visit blackrock.com for more information.<br />
	so what do i do<br />
	with my money?®<br />
	 </p>

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