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Moody’s - El debate sobre independencia Cataluña llevará probablemente a más devolución en España
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    <strong>Artículo publicado en <a href="http://www.lacartadelbolsa.com">La Carta de la Bolsa</a> el Martes, 21 de Octubre en la sección: Articulos</strong>
    <h3 class="titulo_articulo">Moody’s - El debate sobre independencia Cataluña llevará probablemente a más devolución en España</h3>
    Redacción
    <p>
	Los analistas de Moody’s piensan que la decisión del gobierno Catalán de respetar la suspensión del proceso de consulta reduce la incertidumbre política a corto plazo, tanto para Catalunya y España. Esto también puede desplazar el debate hacia una discusión de mayor devolución fiscal en España.</p>

    <p>
	Catalunya independence debate likely<br />
	to shift to greater devolution within<br />
	Spain<br />
	On 14 October, Catalan President Artur Mas announced that an unofficial vote on<br />
	Catalunya’s independence would occur on 9 November, instead of the scheduled<br />
	non-binding official consultation. e Catalan government’s decision to respect the<br />
	Constitutional Court’s suspension of the consultation process reduces near-term<br />
	political uncertainty for both Catalunya (Ba2, positive) and, given the region’s economic<br />
	signicance, Spain (Baa2, positive). However, this may also shift the debate towards a<br />
	discussion of greater scal devolution in Spain.<br />
	After Catalunya published its ‘public consultation law’ 1 and call for consultation 2<br />
	in late September, the central government appealed to the country’s Constitutional<br />
	Court. President Mas’s announcement follows the Constitutional Court’s decision to<br />
	suspend the consultation process until it reaches a decision on its constitutionality. e<br />
	regional government had always declared that it would act within the realms of the law,<br />
	and cited both the concern of acting legally and a lack of consensus among the political<br />
	parties supporting Catalan independence aspirations as reasons for cancelling the official<br />
	consultation. e unofficial vote will have no legal implications, with no official census<br />
	of voters, election commission or support of public servants, and is a way to allow<br />
	Catalan citizens to express their views on independence while respecting Spanish law.<br />
	Although the Constitutional Court’s decision timeline is unknown, we expect that it will<br />
	eventually rule Catalunya’s call for an official consultation as unconstitutional.<br />
	However, this decision by the Catalan government and the pending ruling by the<br />
	Constitutional Court, does not resolve the debate around increased scal resources and<br />
	devolution of powers to Catalunya. e most recent polls indicate that a majority of<br />
	voters would prefer Catalunya to remain a part of Spain with greater scal autonomy,<br />
	rather than become a fully independent state (see Exhibits 1 & 2).<br />
	MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CROSS-SECTOR<br />
	This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on<br />
	<a href="http://www.moodys.com">http://www.moodys.com</a> for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.<br />
	2 20 OCTOBER 2014 SPAIN, GOVERNMENT OF AND CATALUNYA, GENERALITAT DE CATALUNYA INDEPENDENCE DEBATE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO GREATER DEVOLUTION WITHIN SPAIN<br />
	Exhibit 1<br />
	Media poll results to question of which additional option would be<br />
	supported in a consultation on Catalan independence<br />
	(% support)<br />
	Source: El Pais, Metroscopia, Moody’s<br />
	Exhibit 2<br />
	Media poll results to question about which steps President Mas should<br />
	take after the Constitutional Court’s suspension of the consultation<br />
	(% in favour)<br />
	Source: El Pais, Metroscopia, Moody’s<br />
	While we expect negotiations to take place between the region and the central government in the coming months, we do<br />
	not expect the central government to offer signicant concessions to Catalunya before 2016 given the May 2015 municipal<br />
	elections and national elections (which are expected by the end of 2015). As a result, the political relationship between the<br />
	central government and Catalunya will remain strained, with the associated political noise and economic uncertainty continuing<br />
	throughout the coming year. However, we do not believe that these tensions will have direct nancial repercussions on either<br />
	the central or the regional government, especially given Catalunya’s importance to the Spanish economy – the region accounts<br />
	for approximately 19% of Spanish GDP, 16% of the country’s total population and enjoys the fourth highest GDP per<br />
	capita in Spain. e political debate surrounding independence is not new and has not affected central government liquidity<br />
	support to the region since 2012. As of year-end 2014, we expect that Catalunya will have received €31.3 billion from the<br />
	central government since 2012 to cover its decits, debt amortisations, and commercial debt accumulation. In 2014, we expect<br />
	government loans to represent 46% of Catalunya’s total debt and believe that Spain will provide Catalunya with at least €8<br />
	billion of funding via the Fondo de Liquidez Autonomico (FLA) in 2015.<br />
	e next step in Catalunya’s independence aspirations is likely to be regional elections, which will likely represent the ultimate<br />
	‘vote’ on Catalan independence. If Mas and his party manage to run on a common platform with other pro-independence<br />
	parties, enabling the coalition to win an absolute majority, the Catalan government would be likely to call early regional<br />
	elections, i.e. before the end of 2016. In such an event, the region’s negotiating position vis-à-vis the central government would<br />
	be strong, and Catalunya would likely be able to satisfy some of its demands, particularly those related to greater scal resources,<br />
	within the Constitution’s legal possibilities. While this would likely be credit-positive for Catalunya, it has the potential to be<br />
	credit-negative for the Spanish sovereign given the region’s greater potential to generate revenues for the central government<br />
	relative to some other Spanish regions.<br />
	If a common platform were not found among the pro-independence parties – a less likely outcome in our view – the risk of a<br />
	more confrontational stance with the government would increase as these parties try to differentiate their positions from one<br />
	another, which would be credit negative for both Spain and Catalunya.<br />
	 </p>

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